Do shocks divide or unite: Evidence from the Netherlands

We study the possible increase of partisan polarization in the Netherlands over the period 1998–2023, in particular its relationship with the degree of urbanization, the so-called urban-rural divide. Using national election results at the municipal level and municipal characteristics, we show that urban-rural polarization has indeed increased. A novel aspect of our paper is the introduction of shocks as possible explanatory variables. The effect of a shock on polarization depends on the type of shock. An exterior shock tends to increase cohesion and lower polarization, but an interior shock leads to less cohesion and more polarization.