Does interest fit between student and study program lead to better outcomes? A meta-analysis of vocational interest congruence as predictor for academic success

Vocational interests are a commonly used concept to help students choose a study program in higher education. The underlying assumption is that a good choice reflects congruence of the program with a student's vocational interests. This assumption however remains controversial, given the lack of conclusive evidence due to methodological problems, mixed results, and absence of meta-analyses using multiple indicators of academic success. Therefore, we aimed to provide reliable meta-analytic evidence regarding the relationship between interest congruence and three indicators of academic success in higher education, along with the sources of variation moderating this relationship. We first performed a systematic search in three databases, which included 23 studies. We then used psychometric meta-analysis and narrative analysis to synthesise these studies. The meta-analytic results revealed that interest congruence is a positive, albeit small, predictor of academic achievement, persistence in the study program, and satisfaction with the study program. Interestingly, the manner in which interest congruence was operationalised moderated this relation: congruence measures that were operationalised with the full interest profile showed larger effects. The outcomes of the narrative review showed a great variety of methodological approaches, rendering it difficult to draw a firm conclusion. However, the general observation based on the review is that the congruence-outcome relationship is affected by individual characteristics of students, such as prior achievement, gender, first-generation status, and race. In conclusion, the results of this meta-analysis and subsequent narrative review indicate that the concept of interest congruence has the potential to be a helpful tool for adolescents for reflection on study choice. However, the relationship between interest congruence and academic success is influenced by a complex interplay of measurement variables and other individual characteristics, which should be considered in future research.