Drought is associated with human migration in agriculture-dependent middle-income countries

Maurizio Mazzoleni; Giuliano Di Baldassarre; Ana Hagström; Elena Raffetti

doi:10.1038/s43247-026-03358-6

Drought is associated with human migration in agriculture-dependent middle-income countries

Maurizio Mazzoleni
, Giuliano Di Baldassarre^*
, Ana Hagström
, Elena Raffetti

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Human migration has been an essential and transformative process, driven by the need to adapt to changing environmental, social, and economic conditions. Here we explore associations between drought events and migration patterns worldwide, compounded by climatic and socio-economic factors such as armed conflict, water withdrawal, crop yield, income and health metrics, in agriculturally dependent regions during the period 2000–2019. We show that, while socio-economic factors remain the primary drivers of migration, drought also exerts a strong influence. Our findings reveal that drought were major predictors of migration in approximately 11% of the regions analyzed, with robust drought-migration associations in middle-income regions. High-income urban areas do not exhibit strong migration dynamics linked to drought, while changes in income conditions and water withdrawal were associated with emigration. This study underscores the need for a comprehensive understanding of the global impacts of drought on migration patterns in agriculture-dependent regions to inform effective and sustainable strategies of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

Original language	English
Article number	248
Pages (from-to)	1-9
Number of pages	9
Journal	Communications Earth & Environment
Volume	7
Early online date	6 Mar 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03358-6
Publication status	Published - 2026

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2026.

Funding

Open access funding provided by Uppsala University. M.M. was supported by the European Union/s Horizon Projects CLIMAAX (grant agreement No. 101093864) and ICISK (grant Agreement Number 101037293). G.D.B. has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Programme under the TRANSCEND Project (Grant Agreement 101084110). E.R. was supported by the Swedish Research Council for Health, Working Life and Welfare (FORTE, grants n. 2022-00882 and 2024-00833), Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development (Formas, grants n. 2023-01774 and 2022-01845), Swedish Research Council (VR, grants n. 2023-01982 and 2022-06599).

Funders	Funder number
Uppsala Universitet
European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation programme	101084110
Vetenskapsrådet	2022-06599, 2023-01982
ICISK	101037293
European Union/s Horizon Projects CLIMAAX	101093864
Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas	2022-01845, 2023-01774
Forskningsrådet för hälsa, arbetsliv och välfärd	2022-00882, 2024-00833

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10.1038/s43247-026-03358-6Licence: CC BY

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title = "Drought is associated with human migration in agriculture-dependent middle-income countries",

abstract = "Human migration has been an essential and transformative process, driven by the need to adapt to changing environmental, social, and economic conditions. Here we explore associations between drought events and migration patterns worldwide, compounded by climatic and socio-economic factors such as armed conflict, water withdrawal, crop yield, income and health metrics, in agriculturally dependent regions during the period 2000–2019. We show that, while socio-economic factors remain the primary drivers of migration, drought also exerts a strong influence. Our findings reveal that drought were major predictors of migration in approximately 11\% of the regions analyzed, with robust drought-migration associations in middle-income regions. High-income urban areas do not exhibit strong migration dynamics linked to drought, while changes in income conditions and water withdrawal were associated with emigration. This study underscores the need for a comprehensive understanding of the global impacts of drought on migration patterns in agriculture-dependent regions to inform effective and sustainable strategies of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.",

author = "Maurizio Mazzoleni and \{Di Baldassarre\}, Giuliano and Ana Hagstr{\"o}m and Elena Raffetti",

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AU - Mazzoleni, Maurizio

AU - Di Baldassarre, Giuliano

AU - Hagström, Ana

AU - Raffetti, Elena

PY - 2026

Y1 - 2026

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AB - Human migration has been an essential and transformative process, driven by the need to adapt to changing environmental, social, and economic conditions. Here we explore associations between drought events and migration patterns worldwide, compounded by climatic and socio-economic factors such as armed conflict, water withdrawal, crop yield, income and health metrics, in agriculturally dependent regions during the period 2000–2019. We show that, while socio-economic factors remain the primary drivers of migration, drought also exerts a strong influence. Our findings reveal that drought were major predictors of migration in approximately 11% of the regions analyzed, with robust drought-migration associations in middle-income regions. High-income urban areas do not exhibit strong migration dynamics linked to drought, while changes in income conditions and water withdrawal were associated with emigration. This study underscores the need for a comprehensive understanding of the global impacts of drought on migration patterns in agriculture-dependent regions to inform effective and sustainable strategies of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

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Drought is associated with human migration in agriculture-dependent middle-income countries

Abstract

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