Abstract
Using data for Dutch municipal elections between 1998 and 2018, this paper
finds two dominant trends: more political fragmentation and increasing electoral success of independent local parties. The relative size of local parties in the council rises from 25% in 1998 to 37% in 2018 and the relative share of their
aldermen from 21% to 32%. When understanding the increasing share of local
parties, the number of inhabitants, regional diversity, the share of elderly
people and the election year dummies are important explanations. Looking at
the changes after large decentralisations, also indications for a welfare hypothesis were found, if fixed effects are included. Following an empirical approach for AfD in local elections in German state of Lower Saxony, the impact of the anti-establishment Freedom Party on contesting local parties was analysed and this influence turned out to be small. This also gives an indication that Dutch local parties are becoming more established.
finds two dominant trends: more political fragmentation and increasing electoral success of independent local parties. The relative size of local parties in the council rises from 25% in 1998 to 37% in 2018 and the relative share of their
aldermen from 21% to 32%. When understanding the increasing share of local
parties, the number of inhabitants, regional diversity, the share of elderly
people and the election year dummies are important explanations. Looking at
the changes after large decentralisations, also indications for a welfare hypothesis were found, if fixed effects are included. Following an empirical approach for AfD in local elections in German state of Lower Saxony, the impact of the anti-establishment Freedom Party on contesting local parties was analysed and this influence turned out to be small. This also gives an indication that Dutch local parties are becoming more established.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 4 |
Pages (from-to) | 78–99 |
Number of pages | 22 |
Journal | Local Government Studies |
Volume | 49 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 15 Feb 2023 |
Keywords
- Local elections
- Independent local parties
- Political fragmentation
- Empirical research
- Local elections; independent local parties; political fragmAnti-establishment attitude