Economic motivation for raising coastal flood defenses in Europe

Michalis I. Vousdoukas; Lorenzo Mentaschi; Jochen Hinkel; Philip J. Ward; Ignazio Mongelli; Juan Carlos Ciscar; Luc Feyen

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15665-3

Economic motivation for raising coastal flood defenses in Europe

Michalis I. Vousdoukas^*, Lorenzo Mentaschi, Jochen Hinkel, Philip J. Ward, Ignazio Mongelli, Juan Carlos Ciscar, Luc Feyen

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Extreme sea levels (ESLs) in Europe could rise by as much as one metre or more by the end of this century due to climate change. This poses significant challenges to safeguard coastal communities. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of economically efficient protection scenarios along Europe’s coastlines during the present century. We employ a probabilistic framework that integrates dynamic simulations of all ESL components and flood inundation, impact modelling and a cost-benefit analysis of raising dykes. We find that at least 83% of flood damages in Europe could be avoided by elevating dykes in an economically efficient way along 23.7%-32.1% of Europe’s coastline, specifically where high value conurbations exist. The European mean benefit to cost ratio of the investments varies from 8.3 to 14.9 while at country level this ranges between 1.6 and 34.3, with higher efficiencies for a scenario with high-end greenhouse gas emissions and strong socio-economic growth.

Original language	English
Article number	2119
Pages (from-to)	1-11
Number of pages	11
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	11
Issue number	1
Early online date	5 May 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15665-3
Publication status	Published - 5 May 2020

Funding

P.J.W. received additional funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) in the form of a VIDI grant (grant no. 016.161.324). J.H. has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Programme under the COACCH project (Grant agreement no. 776479) and from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research through the ERA4CS project ISIPEDIA (Grant no. 01LS1711C).

Funders	Funder number
European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme	776479
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung	01LS1711C
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek	016.161.324

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1038/s41467-020-15665-3

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title = "Economic motivation for raising coastal flood defenses in Europe",

abstract = "Extreme sea levels (ESLs) in Europe could rise by as much as one metre or more by the end of this century due to climate change. This poses significant challenges to safeguard coastal communities. Here we present a comprehensive analysis of economically efficient protection scenarios along Europe{\textquoteright}s coastlines during the present century. We employ a probabilistic framework that integrates dynamic simulations of all ESL components and flood inundation, impact modelling and a cost-benefit analysis of raising dykes. We find that at least 83% of flood damages in Europe could be avoided by elevating dykes in an economically efficient way along 23.7%-32.1% of Europe{\textquoteright}s coastline, specifically where high value conurbations exist. The European mean benefit to cost ratio of the investments varies from 8.3 to 14.9 while at country level this ranges between 1.6 and 34.3, with higher efficiencies for a scenario with high-end greenhouse gas emissions and strong socio-economic growth.",

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AU - Ward, Philip J.

AU - Mongelli, Ignazio

AU - Ciscar, Juan Carlos

AU - Feyen, Luc

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Economic motivation for raising coastal flood defenses in Europe

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UN SDGs

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