Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa

Alvaro Calzadilla, Tingju Zhu, Katrin Rehdanz, Richard S J Tol, Claudia Ringler

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Two possible adaptation scenarios to climate change for Sub-Saharan Africa are analyzed under the SRES B2 scenario. The first scenario doubles the irrigated area in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2050, compared to the baseline, but keeps total crop area constant. The second scenario increases both rainfed and irrigated crop yields by 25% for all Sub-Saharan African countries. The two adaptation scenarios are analyzed with IMPACT, a partial equilibrium agricultural sector model combined with a water simulation module, and with GTAP-W, a general equilibrium model including water resources. The methodology combines the advantages of a partial equilibrium approach, which considers detailed water-agriculture linkages, with a general equilibrium approach, which takes into account linkages between agriculture and nonagricultural sectors and includes a full treatment of factor markets. The efficacy of the two scenarios as adaptation measures to cope with climate change is discussed. Due to the limited initial irrigated area in the region, an increase in agricultural productivity achieves better outcomes than an expansion of irrigated area. Even though Sub-Saharan Africa is not a key contributor to global food production (rainfed, irrigated or total), both scenarios help lower world food prices, stimulating national and international food markets.

LanguageEnglish
Pages150-165
Number of pages16
JournalEcological Economics
Volume93
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

Fingerprint

agriculture
climate change
food market
food production
crop yield
water resource
water
productivity
crop
food
methodology
Africa
Scenarios
Sub-Saharan Africa
Agriculture
Climate change
simulation
Water
Partial equilibrium
Linkage

Keywords

  • Agriculture
  • Climate change
  • Computable general equilibrium
  • Sub-Saharan Africa

Cite this

Calzadilla, Alvaro ; Zhu, Tingju ; Rehdanz, Katrin ; Tol, Richard S J ; Ringler, Claudia. / Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa. In: Ecological Economics. 2013 ; Vol. 93. pp. 150-165.
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Economywide impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa. / Calzadilla, Alvaro; Zhu, Tingju; Rehdanz, Katrin; Tol, Richard S J; Ringler, Claudia.

In: Ecological Economics, Vol. 93, 2013, p. 150-165.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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