Equilibrium Bitcoin Pricing

Bruno Biais*, Christophe Bisière, Matthieu Bouvard, Catherine Casamatta, Albert J. Menkveld

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

We offer a general equilibrium analysis of cryptocurrency pricing. The fundamental value of the cryptocurrency is its stream of net transactional benefits, which depend on its future prices. This implies that, in addition to fundamentals, equilibrium prices reflect sunspots. This in turn implies multiple equilibria and extrinsic volatility, that is, cryptocurrency prices fluctuate even when fundamentals are constant. To match our model to the data, we construct indices measuring the net transactional benefits of Bitcoin. In our calibration, part of the variations in Bitcoin returns reflects changes in net transactional benefits, but a larger share reflects extrinsic volatility.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)967-1014
Number of pages48
JournalJournal of Finance
Volume78
Issue number2
Early online date19 Jan 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2023

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 the American Finance Association.

Funding

FundersFunder number
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme882375

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