EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research

D. Jacob; J. Petersen; B. Eggert; A. Alias; O.B. Christensen; L.M. Bouwer; A. Braun; A. Colette; M. Déqué; G. Georgievski; E. Georgopoulou; A. Gobiet; L. Menut; G. Nikulin; A. Haensler; N. Hempelmann; C. Jones; K. Keuler; S. Kovats; N. Kröner; S. Kotlarski; A. Kriegsmann; E. Martin; E. van Meijgaard; C. Moseley; S. Pfeifer; S. Preuschmann; C. Radermacher; K. Radtke; D. Rechid; M. Rounsevell; P. Samuelsson; S. Somot; J.-F. Soussana; C. Teichmann; R. Valentini; R. Vautard; B. Weber; P. Yiuou

doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2

EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research

D. Jacob, J. Petersen, B. Eggert, A. Alias, O.B. Christensen, L.M. Bouwer, A. Braun, A. Colette, M. Déqué, G. Georgievski, E. Georgopoulou, A. Gobiet, L. Menut, G. Nikulin, A. Haensler, N. Hempelmann, C. Jones, K. Keuler, S. Kovats, N. KrönerS. Kotlarski, A. Kriegsmann, E. Martin, E. van Meijgaard, C. Moseley, S. Pfeifer, S. Preuschmann, C. Radermacher, K. Radtke, D. Rechid, M. Rounsevell, P. Samuelsson, S. Somot, J.-F. Soussana, C. Teichmann, R. Valentini, R. Vautard, B. Weber, P. Yiuou

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities. © 2013 The Author(s).

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	563-578
Number of pages	16
Journal	Regional Environmental Change
Volume	14
Issue number	2
Early online date	23 Jul 2013
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2
Publication status	Published - 2014

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This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com

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This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B., Alias, A., Christensen, O. B., Bouwer, L. M., Braun, A., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Georgievski, G., Georgopoulou, E., Gobiet, A., Menut, L., Nikulin, G., Haensler, A., Hempelmann, N., Jones, C., Keuler, K., Kovats, S., ... Yiuou, P. (2014). EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Regional Environmental Change, 14(2), 563-578. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2

@article{bc8986489bd04dac8ba5098457ec72cb,

title = "EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research",

abstract = "A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities. {\textcopyright} 2013 The Author(s).",

author = "D. Jacob and J. Petersen and B. Eggert and A. Alias and O.B. Christensen and L.M. Bouwer and A. Braun and A. Colette and M. D{\'e}qu{\'e} and G. Georgievski and E. Georgopoulou and A. Gobiet and L. Menut and G. Nikulin and A. Haensler and N. Hempelmann and C. Jones and K. Keuler and S. Kovats and N. Kr{\"o}ner and S. Kotlarski and A. Kriegsmann and E. Martin and {van Meijgaard}, E. and C. Moseley and S. Pfeifer and S. Preuschmann and C. Radermacher and K. Radtke and D. Rechid and M. Rounsevell and P. Samuelsson and S. Somot and J.-F. Soussana and C. Teichmann and R. Valentini and R. Vautard and B. Weber and P. Yiuou",

note = "This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com",

year = "2014",

doi = "10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2",

language = "English",

volume = "14",

pages = "563--578",

journal = "Regional Environmental Change",

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Jacob, D, Petersen, J, Eggert, B, Alias, A, Christensen, OB, Bouwer, LM, Braun, A, Colette, A, Déqué, M, Georgievski, G, Georgopoulou, E, Gobiet, A, Menut, L, Nikulin, G, Haensler, A, Hempelmann, N, Jones, C, Keuler, K, Kovats, S, Kröner, N, Kotlarski, S, Kriegsmann, A, Martin, E, van Meijgaard, E, Moseley, C, Pfeifer, S, Preuschmann, S, Radermacher, C, Radtke, K, Rechid, D, Rounsevell, M, Samuelsson, P, Somot, S, Soussana, J-F, Teichmann, C, Valentini, R, Vautard, R, Weber, B & Yiuou, P 2014, 'EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research', Regional Environmental Change, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 563-578. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2

TY - JOUR

T1 - EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research

AU - Jacob, D.

AU - Petersen, J.

AU - Eggert, B.

AU - Alias, A.

AU - Christensen, O.B.

AU - Bouwer, L.M.

AU - Braun, A.

AU - Colette, A.

AU - Déqué, M.

AU - Georgievski, G.

AU - Georgopoulou, E.

AU - Gobiet, A.

AU - Menut, L.

AU - Nikulin, G.

AU - Haensler, A.

AU - Hempelmann, N.

AU - Jones, C.

AU - Keuler, K.

AU - Kovats, S.

AU - Kröner, N.

AU - Kotlarski, S.

AU - Kriegsmann, A.

AU - Martin, E.

AU - van Meijgaard, E.

AU - Moseley, C.

AU - Pfeifer, S.

AU - Preuschmann, S.

AU - Radermacher, C.

AU - Radtke, K.

AU - Rechid, D.

AU - Rounsevell, M.

AU - Samuelsson, P.

AU - Somot, S.

AU - Soussana, J.-F.

AU - Teichmann, C.

AU - Valentini, R.

AU - Vautard, R.

AU - Weber, B.

AU - Yiuou, P.

N1 - This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities. © 2013 The Author(s).

AB - A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities. © 2013 The Author(s).

U2 - 10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2

DO - 10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2

M3 - Article

SN - 1436-3798

VL - 14

SP - 563

EP - 578

JO - Regional Environmental Change

JF - Regional Environmental Change

IS - 2

ER -

EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

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