Abstract
Objectives
Evaluate the impact of a place-based, community and problem-oriented policing intervention in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Methods
This evaluation is guided by the EMMIE framework, and its methods and hypotheses are pre-registered on the OpenScienceFramework: https://osf.io/7kyr3/. The effect is estimated using a quasi-experimental, difference-in-difference design, comparing treatment areas (high-treatment, low-treatment, and catchment area) to synthetic control groups constructed from comparable neighbourhoods in Amsterdam. Outcome measures included the number of fast responses (<3 min), crime-, disorder-, traffic- and accident-related calls-for-service counts, and survey-based assessments of perceived neighbourhood disorder, fear of crime, victimisation, and citizen satisfaction with (local and general) police and the municipality.
Results
In line with pre-registered hypotheses, we observed a substantial decrease in crime- (RIRR = 0.77) and disorder-related calls-for-service (RIRR = 0.84) in the intervention area and a small but significant increase in fear of crime in the low-treatment area (SMD = 0.11). Contrary to pre-registered hypotheses, we observed a substantial and statistically significant increase in perceived neighbourhood disorder (SMD = 0.31) and decrease in citizen satisfaction with police in the neighbourhood (SMD = 0.42) and citizen satisfaction with the municipality (SMD = 0.47) in the high-treatment area. Over all treatment areas (referred to a full-treatment: high, low and catchment combined), the intervention only yielded a small but significant increase in fear of crime (SMD = 0.07) compared to synthetic controls.
Conclusions
This study yielded mixed results. We observed a substantial decrease in crime- and disorder-related calls-for-service in the high-treatment area. However, observed over the full-treatment area, the reduction disappears, indicating crime displacement dynamics. Moreover, we observed worsened public perceptions in the high-treatment, low-treatment, and the catchment area, highlighting a disconnect between improved local conditions and worsened public perceptions in the high-treatment area.
Evaluate the impact of a place-based, community and problem-oriented policing intervention in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Methods
This evaluation is guided by the EMMIE framework, and its methods and hypotheses are pre-registered on the OpenScienceFramework: https://osf.io/7kyr3/. The effect is estimated using a quasi-experimental, difference-in-difference design, comparing treatment areas (high-treatment, low-treatment, and catchment area) to synthetic control groups constructed from comparable neighbourhoods in Amsterdam. Outcome measures included the number of fast responses (<3 min), crime-, disorder-, traffic- and accident-related calls-for-service counts, and survey-based assessments of perceived neighbourhood disorder, fear of crime, victimisation, and citizen satisfaction with (local and general) police and the municipality.
Results
In line with pre-registered hypotheses, we observed a substantial decrease in crime- (RIRR = 0.77) and disorder-related calls-for-service (RIRR = 0.84) in the intervention area and a small but significant increase in fear of crime in the low-treatment area (SMD = 0.11). Contrary to pre-registered hypotheses, we observed a substantial and statistically significant increase in perceived neighbourhood disorder (SMD = 0.31) and decrease in citizen satisfaction with police in the neighbourhood (SMD = 0.42) and citizen satisfaction with the municipality (SMD = 0.47) in the high-treatment area. Over all treatment areas (referred to a full-treatment: high, low and catchment combined), the intervention only yielded a small but significant increase in fear of crime (SMD = 0.07) compared to synthetic controls.
Conclusions
This study yielded mixed results. We observed a substantial decrease in crime- and disorder-related calls-for-service in the high-treatment area. However, observed over the full-treatment area, the reduction disappears, indicating crime displacement dynamics. Moreover, we observed worsened public perceptions in the high-treatment, low-treatment, and the catchment area, highlighting a disconnect between improved local conditions and worsened public perceptions in the high-treatment area.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 1-41 |
| Number of pages | 41 |
| Journal | Journal of Experimental Criminology |
| Volume | 21 |
| Issue number | 4 |
| Early online date | 23 Jun 2025 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Dec 2025 |
Funding
This research was carried out within the What Works in Policing research programme of the Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement (NSCR) and is funded by the Netherlands Police. The funder had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Additionally, this research project benefitted from a research grant from the Empirical Legal Studies (ELS) Academy.
| Funders |
|---|
| Netherlands Institute for the Study of Crime and Law Enforcement |
| NSCR |
| Netherlands Police |
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