Ex-ante actions and ex-post public responses to drought shocks: Evidence and Simulations from Zimbabwe

J Hoddinott, B.H. Kinsey, T Owens

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The study examines the consequences of alternative public responses to drought shocks. It does so by drawing on household data from resettlement areas of rural Zimbabwe from 1992-93 to 1995-96 and the estimation of four behavioral relations: The determinants of crop income; the determinants of investment in livestock; the determinants of investment in agricultural capital stock; and the determinants of private transfers. This information is used to construct a series of simulations in which drought relief received in the aftermath of the 1994-95-the ex-post response-is made available to households in the form of agricultural capital stock and extension advice-an ex-ante action. Doing so is found to raise household welfare in nondrought years, but provides only limited protection in the aftermath of drought. © 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1239-1255
Number of pages16
JournalWorld Development
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - 2003

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