Exploring plausible future scenarios of deep seabed mining in international waters

The global transition to renewable energy has intensified the demand for critical minerals, which are essential components in key green technologies. Many of these minerals are abundant on the international seabed, but negotiations surrounding deep-sea mining regulations have met significant challenges. Developing countries, having historically been marginalized in the benefits of resource extraction, have expressed concern about the regulatory framework for deep-sea areas. Additionally, scientific understanding of the potential ecological impacts of deep-sea mining on marine ecosystems remains limited. Despite these concerns, the economic incentives for exploiting deep-sea minerals are driving pressure to finalize regulatory frameworks and commence mining activities. While speculation abounds regarding the future trajectory of deep seabed mining, significant uncertainties persist when considering its development in international waters. This paper explores these uncertainties and examines the potential future implications of global policy decisions for both ecological sustainability and economic outcomes. Drawing on document analysis and expert interviews, we identify critical uncertainties and other drivers of change shaping the future of deep-sea mining. Using the 2 x 2 ‘intuitive logics’ matrix method, we develop scenario narratives based on the two most critical uncertainties: the place of environmental management and redistribution of benefits in the nascent industry. The scenarios present possible futures for deep-sea mining in international waters, providing insights to inform regulatory decision-making.