Exploring sustainable urbanization pathways by simulating local density change

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Abstract

Geographical information and decision support systems are a well established part of the spatial and environmental planning process in The Netherlands (e.g. Geertman and Stillwell, 2009). An example of a land-use model which is applied particularly widely is Land Use Scanner (e.g., Koomen and Borsboom-van Beurden, 2011). Modelling approaches like these have so far focused mainly on
urban expansion or, in more recent terms, land take (European Commission, 2011). Densification, defined as the share of buildings allocated to existing built-up areas instead of locations outside the city, is often treated as a given (exogeneous). Local density change and the underlying demolition and construction of buildings are only accounted for in an aggregated form, or remain wholly implicit. This study introduces an applied model which simulates the processes of construction and demolition explicitly, and does so on a highly disaggregated level (i.e. 25 x 25 meter grid cells). Construction and demolition are functions of regional projections of population (households) and economic (jobs) (re)construction options on the other. The practical use of the model is demonstrated by applying it in a broad, integrated scenario study (PBL, 2023). It shows that explicitly simulating the underlying processes that make up the urban fabric allows us to consistently account for a wide range of societal
costs and benefits associated with urbanization, including soil sealing, flood damage and the accessibility of green space, enabling us to explore sustainable urbanization pathways indeed.
Original languageEnglish
Pages149-149
Number of pages1
Publication statusPublished - 17 Sept 2023
Event23rd European Colloqium on Theoretical Quantitative Geography - Braga, Portugal
Duration: 14 Sept 202317 Sept 2023
Conference number: 23
https://ucpages.uc.pt/events/ectqg2023/

Conference

Conference23rd European Colloqium on Theoretical Quantitative Geography
Abbreviated titleECTQG
Country/TerritoryPortugal
CityBraga
Period14/09/2317/09/23
Internet address

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