Extending the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to support local adaptation planning—A climate service for Flensburg, Germany

Lena Reimann*, Bente Vollstedt, Jana Koerth, Maureen Tsakiris, Martin Beer, Athanasios T. Vafeidis

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

In this study, we extend the global-scale Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to develop local SSPs as a tool to inform adaptation decisions (a so-called ‘climate service’) for the city of Flensburg, Germany. Flensburg experiences regular coastal flooding during storm events, which is expected to increase with sea-level rise (SLR). To develop robust adaptation strategies under the uncertainties of future SLR and socioeconomic development in the city, local socioeconomic scenarios can help explore plausible future socioeconomic conditions and how these conditions drive adaptation strategies. We employ a multi-scale co-production approach for developing such local scenarios. Using the global SSPs as boundary conditions, we construct local SSP narratives based on local SSP elements that we compile during the process. We integrate local stakeholder knowledge into the local SSPs in an iterative manner with the help of focus group discussions, a scenario workshop, and email feedback. This process results in four local SSP narratives that explore alternative trends in socioeconomic development in Flensburg and are embedded in developments at national to global scales. Due to their local relevance, the extended local SSPs can serve as a climate service to support Flensburg in developing adaptation plans to cope with the future impacts of SLR.

Original languageEnglish
Article number102691
JournalFutures
Volume127
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2021
Externally publishedYes

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We would like to thank our local stakeholder Joachim Kaulbars as well as all local stakeholders who participated in the workshop for their valuable input and feedback during the scenario development process. The project EVOKED is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by RCN (NO), FORMAS (SE), NOW (NL), BMBF (DE) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462 ). BV, JK, and MT were funded as part of the EVOKED project.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Author(s)

Copyright:
Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

Funding

We would like to thank our local stakeholder Joachim Kaulbars as well as all local stakeholders who participated in the workshop for their valuable input and feedback during the scenario development process. The project EVOKED is part of ERA4CS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by RCN (NO), FORMAS (SE), NOW (NL), BMBF (DE) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462 ). BV, JK, and MT were funded as part of the EVOKED project.

FundersFunder number
Now
RCN
European Commission690462
Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung

    Keywords

    • Climate service
    • Co-production
    • Extended Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)
    • Living lab
    • Local socioeconomic scenarios
    • Multi-scale

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