Extreme dry and wet spells face changes in their duration and timing

K. Breinl, G. Di Baldassarre, M. Mazzoleni, D. Lun, G. Vico

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

© 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.Dry spells are sequences of days without precipitation. They can have negative implications for societies, including water security and agriculture. For example, changes in their duration and within-year timing can pose a threat to food production and wildfire risk. Conversely, wet spells are sequences of days with precipitation above a certain threshold, and changes in their duration and within-year timing can impact agriculture, flooding or the prevalence of water-related vector-borne diseases. Here we assess changes in the duration and within-year timing of extreme dry and wet spells over 60 years (1958-2017) using a consistent global land surface precipitation dataset of 5093 rain gauge locations. The dataset allowed for detailed spatial analyses of the United States, Europe and Australia. While many locations exhibit statistically significant changes in the duration of extreme dry and wet spells, the changes in the within-year timing are less often significant. Our results show consistencies with observations and projections from state-of-the-art climate and water resources research. In addition, we provide new insights regarding trends in the timing of extreme dry and wet spells, an aspect being equally important for possible future implications of extremes in a changing climate, which has not yet received the same level of attention and is characterized by larger uncertainty.
Original languageEnglish
Article number074040
JournalEnvironmental Research Letters
Volume15
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 2020
Externally publishedYes

Funding

FundersFunder number
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme793558, 771678

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