Abstract
Extreme precipitation occurring on consecutive days may substantially increase the risk of related impacts, but changes in such events have not been studied at a global scale. Here we use a unique global dataset based on in situ observations and multimodel historical and future simulations to analyze the changes in the frequency of extreme precipitation on consecutive days (EPCD). We further disentangle the relative contributions of variations in precipitation intensity and temporal correlation of extreme precipitation to understand the processes that drive the changes in EPCD. Observations and climate model simulations show that the frequency of EPCD is increasing in most land regions, in particular, in North America, Europe, and the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. These increases are primarily a consequence of increasing precipitation intensity, but changes in the temporal correlation of extreme precipitation regionally amplify or reduce the effects of intensity changes. Changes are larger in simulations with a stronger warming signal, suggesting that further increases in EPCD are expected for the future under continued climate warming.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | E1130-E1145 |
Number of pages | 16 |
Journal | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society |
Volume | 103 |
Issue number | 4 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Apr 2022 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:We acknowledge support from the National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFC0409101), Science and Technology Development Plan of Jilin Province (20190201291JC), the Joint Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China (U19A2023), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2412020FZ002), and 2236 Co-Funded Brain Circulation Scheme2 (CoCirculation2) of T?B?TAK (121C054). M.G.D. acknowledges support by the Horizon 2020 EUCP project under Grant Agreement 776613 and by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ram?n y Cajal 2017 Grant Reference RYC-2017-22964.
Funding Information:
Acknowledgments. We acknowledge support from the National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFC0409101), Science and Technology Development Plan of Jilin Province (20190201291JC), the Joint Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China (U19A2023), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2412020FZ002), and 2236 Co-Funded Brain Circulation Scheme2 (CoCirculation2) of TÜBİTAK (121C054). M.G.D. acknowledges support by the Horizon 2020 EUCP project under Grant Agreement 776613 and by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ramón y Cajal 2017 Grant Reference RYC-2017-22964.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 American Meteorological Society
Funding
We acknowledge support from the National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFC0409101), Science and Technology Development Plan of Jilin Province (20190201291JC), the Joint Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China (U19A2023), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2412020FZ002), and 2236 Co-Funded Brain Circulation Scheme2 (CoCirculation2) of T?B?TAK (121C054). M.G.D. acknowledges support by the Horizon 2020 EUCP project under Grant Agreement 776613 and by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ram?n y Cajal 2017 Grant Reference RYC-2017-22964. Acknowledgments. We acknowledge support from the National Key R&D Program of China (2019YFC0409101), Science and Technology Development Plan of Jilin Province (20190201291JC), the Joint Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China (U19A2023), the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2412020FZ002), and 2236 Co-Funded Brain Circulation Scheme2 (CoCirculation2) of TÜBİTAK (121C054). M.G.D. acknowledges support by the Horizon 2020 EUCP project under Grant Agreement 776613 and by the Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ramón y Cajal 2017 Grant Reference RYC-2017-22964.
Funders | Funder number |
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Horizon 2020 EUCP | |
Science and Technology Development Plan of Jilin Province | 20190201291JC |
Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ram?n y Cajal | |
Spanish Ministry for the Economy, Industry and Competitiveness Ramón y Cajal | RYC-2017-22964 |
TÜBİTAK | |
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme | 776613 |
National Natural Science Foundation of China | U19A2023 |
National Key Research and Development Program of China | 2019YFC0409101 |
Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities | 121C054, 2412020FZ002 |
Keywords
- Climate change
- Climate prediction
- Climate records
- Extreme events
- Precipitation