Abstract
The ice- and organic-rich permafrost of the northeast Siberian Arctic lowlands (NESAL) has been projected to remain stable beyond 2100, even under pessimistic climate warming scenarios. However, the numerical models used for these projections lack processes which induce widespread landscape change termed thermokarst, precluding realistic simulation of permafrost thaw in such ice-rich terrain. Here, we consider thermokarst-inducing processes in a numerical model and show that substantial permafrost degradation, involving widespread landscape collapse, is projected for the NESAL under strong warming (RCP8.5), while thawing is moderated by stabilizing feedbacks under moderate warming (RCP4.5). We estimate that by 2100 thaw-affected carbon could be up to three-fold (twelve-fold) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5), of what is projected if thermokarst-inducing processes are ignored. Our study provides progress towards robust assessments of the global permafrost carbon–climate feedback by Earth system models, and underlines the importance of mitigating climate change to limit its impacts on permafrost ecosystems.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 2201 |
Journal | Nature Communications |
Volume | 11 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Dec 2020 |
Externally published | Yes |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:We thank Lutz Schirrmeister for providing soil organic carbon data and Alexander Oehme for processing the RCP2.6 forcing data. This work was supported by a grant of the Research Council of Norway (project PERMANOR, grant no. 255331). J.N. was supported by a grant of the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) for a research stay at the University of Oslo, and by the Geo.X Research Network. S.W. acknowledges funding through Nunataryuk (EU grant agreement no. 773421). M.L. was supported by a BMBF grant (project PermaRisk, grant no. 01LN1709A). J.S. was supported by a NERC-BMBF grant (project CACOON, grant no. 03F0806A) and the International Permafrost Association (Action Group The Yedoma Region). This work was supported by funding from the Helmholtz Association in the framework of MOSES (Modular Observation Solutions for Earth Systems).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).
Funding
We thank Lutz Schirrmeister for providing soil organic carbon data and Alexander Oehme for processing the RCP2.6 forcing data. This work was supported by a grant of the Research Council of Norway (project PERMANOR, grant no. 255331). J.N. was supported by a grant of the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) for a research stay at the University of Oslo, and by the Geo.X Research Network. S.W. acknowledges funding through Nunataryuk (EU grant agreement no. 773421). M.L. was supported by a BMBF grant (project PermaRisk, grant no. 01LN1709A). J.S. was supported by a NERC-BMBF grant (project CACOON, grant no. 03F0806A) and the International Permafrost Association (Action Group The Yedoma Region). This work was supported by funding from the Helmholtz Association in the framework of MOSES (Modular Observation Solutions for Earth Systems).