Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate

Jan Nitzbon; Sebastian Westermann; Moritz Langer; Léo C.P. Martin; Jens Strauss; Sebastian Laboor; Julia Boike

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8

Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate

Jan Nitzbon^*
, Sebastian Westermann
, Moritz Langer
, Léo C.P. Martin
, Jens Strauss
, Sebastian Laboor
, Julia Boike

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

The ice- and organic-rich permafrost of the northeast Siberian Arctic lowlands (NESAL) has been projected to remain stable beyond 2100, even under pessimistic climate warming scenarios. However, the numerical models used for these projections lack processes which induce widespread landscape change termed thermokarst, precluding realistic simulation of permafrost thaw in such ice-rich terrain. Here, we consider thermokarst-inducing processes in a numerical model and show that substantial permafrost degradation, involving widespread landscape collapse, is projected for the NESAL under strong warming (RCP8.5), while thawing is moderated by stabilizing feedbacks under moderate warming (RCP4.5). We estimate that by 2100 thaw-affected carbon could be up to three-fold (twelve-fold) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5), of what is projected if thermokarst-inducing processes are ignored. Our study provides progress towards robust assessments of the global permafrost carbon–climate feedback by Earth system models, and underlines the importance of mitigating climate change to limit its impacts on permafrost ecosystems.

Original language	English
Article number	2201
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	11
Issue number	1
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8
Publication status	Published - 1 Dec 2020
Externally published	Yes

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We thank Lutz Schirrmeister for providing soil organic carbon data and Alexander Oehme for processing the RCP2.6 forcing data. This work was supported by a grant of the Research Council of Norway (project PERMANOR, grant no. 255331). J.N. was supported by a grant of the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) for a research stay at the University of Oslo, and by the Geo.X Research Network. S.W. acknowledges funding through Nunataryuk (EU grant agreement no. 773421). M.L. was supported by a BMBF grant (project PermaRisk, grant no. 01LN1709A). J.S. was supported by a NERC-BMBF grant (project CACOON, grant no. 03F0806A) and the International Permafrost Association (Action Group The Yedoma Region). This work was supported by funding from the Helmholtz Association in the framework of MOSES (Modular Observation Solutions for Earth Systems).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).

Funding

We thank Lutz Schirrmeister for providing soil organic carbon data and Alexander Oehme for processing the RCP2.6 forcing data. This work was supported by a grant of the Research Council of Norway (project PERMANOR, grant no. 255331). J.N. was supported by a grant of the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) for a research stay at the University of Oslo, and by the Geo.X Research Network. S.W. acknowledges funding through Nunataryuk (EU grant agreement no. 773421). M.L. was supported by a BMBF grant (project PermaRisk, grant no. 01LN1709A). J.S. was supported by a NERC-BMBF grant (project CACOON, grant no. 03F0806A) and the International Permafrost Association (Action Group The Yedoma Region). This work was supported by funding from the Helmholtz Association in the framework of MOSES (Modular Observation Solutions for Earth Systems).

Funders	Funder number
NERC-BMBF
Helmholtz Association
Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst
European Commission
International Permafrost Association
Nunataryuk
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung	01LN1709A, 03F0806A
Natural Environment Research Council	NE/R012806/1
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme	773421
Norges forskningsråd	255331

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Access to Document

10.1038/s41467-020-15725-8

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Cite this

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title = "Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate",

abstract = "The ice- and organic-rich permafrost of the northeast Siberian Arctic lowlands (NESAL) has been projected to remain stable beyond 2100, even under pessimistic climate warming scenarios. However, the numerical models used for these projections lack processes which induce widespread landscape change termed thermokarst, precluding realistic simulation of permafrost thaw in such ice-rich terrain. Here, we consider thermokarst-inducing processes in a numerical model and show that substantial permafrost degradation, involving widespread landscape collapse, is projected for the NESAL under strong warming (RCP8.5), while thawing is moderated by stabilizing feedbacks under moderate warming (RCP4.5). We estimate that by 2100 thaw-affected carbon could be up to three-fold (twelve-fold) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5), of what is projected if thermokarst-inducing processes are ignored. Our study provides progress towards robust assessments of the global permafrost carbon–climate feedback by Earth system models, and underlines the importance of mitigating climate change to limit its impacts on permafrost ecosystems.",

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note = "Funding Information: We thank Lutz Schirrmeister for providing soil organic carbon data and Alexander Oehme for processing the RCP2.6 forcing data. This work was supported by a grant of the Research Council of Norway (project PERMANOR, grant no. 255331). J.N. was supported by a grant of the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) for a research stay at the University of Oslo, and by the Geo.X Research Network. S.W. acknowledges funding through Nunataryuk (EU grant agreement no. 773421). M.L. was supported by a BMBF grant (project PermaRisk, grant no. 01LN1709A). J.S. was supported by a NERC-BMBF grant (project CACOON, grant no. 03F0806A) and the International Permafrost Association (Action Group The Yedoma Region). This work was supported by funding from the Helmholtz Association in the framework of MOSES (Modular Observation Solutions for Earth Systems). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2020, The Author(s).",

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AU - Strauss, Jens

AU - Laboor, Sebastian

AU - Boike, Julia

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N2 - The ice- and organic-rich permafrost of the northeast Siberian Arctic lowlands (NESAL) has been projected to remain stable beyond 2100, even under pessimistic climate warming scenarios. However, the numerical models used for these projections lack processes which induce widespread landscape change termed thermokarst, precluding realistic simulation of permafrost thaw in such ice-rich terrain. Here, we consider thermokarst-inducing processes in a numerical model and show that substantial permafrost degradation, involving widespread landscape collapse, is projected for the NESAL under strong warming (RCP8.5), while thawing is moderated by stabilizing feedbacks under moderate warming (RCP4.5). We estimate that by 2100 thaw-affected carbon could be up to three-fold (twelve-fold) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5), of what is projected if thermokarst-inducing processes are ignored. Our study provides progress towards robust assessments of the global permafrost carbon–climate feedback by Earth system models, and underlines the importance of mitigating climate change to limit its impacts on permafrost ecosystems.

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VL - 11

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 2201

ER -

Fast response of cold ice-rich permafrost in northeast Siberia to a warming climate

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Funding

UN SDGs

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