Abstract
Future flood risk assessments typically focus on changing hazard conditions as a result of climate change, where flood exposure is assumed to remain static or develop according to exogenous scenarios. However, this study presents a method to project future riverine flood risk in Europe by simulating population growth in floodplains, where households’ settlement location decisions endogenously depend on environmental and institutional factors, including amenities associated with river proximity, riverine flood risk, and insurance against this risk. Our results show that population growth in European floodplains and, consequently, rising riverine flood risk are considerably higher when the dis-amenity caused by flood risk is offset by insurance. This outcome is particularly evident in countries where flood risk is covered collectively and notably less where premiums reflect the risk of individual households.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | 7483 |
| Journal | Nature Communications |
| Volume | 14 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - Dec 2023 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:Research and preparation of this manuscript done by M.T., W.J.W.B, and J.C.J.H.A. was funded by the EU-ERC COASTMOVE project (no. 884442 to J.C.J.H. Aerts) and the EU Horizon project ACCREU (no. 101081358 to W.J.W. Botzen). T.T. is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 MYRIAD-EU project; Grant Agreement No. 101003276. This work used the Dutch national e-infrastructure with the support of the SURF Cooperative using Grant No. EINF-4493.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).