Flood insurance is a driver of population growth in European floodplains

Max Tesselaar; W. J.Wouter Botzen; Timothy Tiggeloven; Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-43229-8

Flood insurance is a driver of population growth in European floodplains

Max Tesselaar^*, W. J.Wouter Botzen, Timothy Tiggeloven, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Future flood risk assessments typically focus on changing hazard conditions as a result of climate change, where flood exposure is assumed to remain static or develop according to exogenous scenarios. However, this study presents a method to project future riverine flood risk in Europe by simulating population growth in floodplains, where households’ settlement location decisions endogenously depend on environmental and institutional factors, including amenities associated with river proximity, riverine flood risk, and insurance against this risk. Our results show that population growth in European floodplains and, consequently, rising riverine flood risk are considerably higher when the dis-amenity caused by flood risk is offset by insurance. This outcome is particularly evident in countries where flood risk is covered collectively and notably less where premiums reflect the risk of individual households.

Original language	English
Article number	7483
Pages (from-to)	1-14
Number of pages	14
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	14
Early online date	18 Nov 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43229-8
Publication status	Published - 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Research and preparation of this manuscript done by M.T., W.J.W.B, and J.C.J.H.A. was funded by the EU-ERC COASTMOVE project (no. 884442 to J.C.J.H. Aerts) and the EU Horizon project ACCREU (no. 101081358 to W.J.W. Botzen). T.T. is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 MYRIAD-EU project; Grant Agreement No. 101003276. This work used the Dutch national e-infrastructure with the support of the SURF Cooperative using Grant No. EINF-4493.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).

Funding

Research and preparation of this manuscript done by M.T., W.J.W.B, and J.C.J.H.A. was funded by the EU-ERC COASTMOVE project (no. 884442 to J.C.J.H. Aerts) and the EU Horizon project ACCREU (no. 101081358 to W.J.W. Botzen). T.T. is funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 MYRIAD-EU project; Grant Agreement No. 101003276. This work used the Dutch national e-infrastructure with the support of the SURF Cooperative using Grant No. EINF-4493.

Funders	Funder number
European Commission	101081358
EU Horizon project ACCREU	101081358
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme	101003276
European Union’s Horizon 2020 MYRIAD-EU	101003276
SURF	EINF-4493
EU-ERC	884442

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title = "Flood insurance is a driver of population growth in European floodplains",

abstract = "Future flood risk assessments typically focus on changing hazard conditions as a result of climate change, where flood exposure is assumed to remain static or develop according to exogenous scenarios. However, this study presents a method to project future riverine flood risk in Europe by simulating population growth in floodplains, where households{\textquoteright} settlement location decisions endogenously depend on environmental and institutional factors, including amenities associated with river proximity, riverine flood risk, and insurance against this risk. Our results show that population growth in European floodplains and, consequently, rising riverine flood risk are considerably higher when the dis-amenity caused by flood risk is offset by insurance. This outcome is particularly evident in countries where flood risk is covered collectively and notably less where premiums reflect the risk of individual households.",

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AB - Future flood risk assessments typically focus on changing hazard conditions as a result of climate change, where flood exposure is assumed to remain static or develop according to exogenous scenarios. However, this study presents a method to project future riverine flood risk in Europe by simulating population growth in floodplains, where households’ settlement location decisions endogenously depend on environmental and institutional factors, including amenities associated with river proximity, riverine flood risk, and insurance against this risk. Our results show that population growth in European floodplains and, consequently, rising riverine flood risk are considerably higher when the dis-amenity caused by flood risk is offset by insurance. This outcome is particularly evident in countries where flood risk is covered collectively and notably less where premiums reflect the risk of individual households.

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Flood insurance is a driver of population growth in European floodplains

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