Fractional integration and fat tails for realized covariance kernels

Anne Opschoor*, Andre Lucas

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

We introduce a new fractionally integrated model for covariance matrix dynamics based on the long-memory behavior of daily realized covariance matrix kernels. We account for fat tails in the data by an appropriate distributional assumption. The covariance matrix dynamics are formulated as a numerically efficient matrix recursion that ensures positive definiteness under simple parameter constraints. Using intraday stock data over the period 2001-2012, we construct realized covariance kernels and show that the new fractionally integrated model statistically and economically outperforms recent alternatives such as the multivariate HEAVY model and the multivariate HAR model. In addition, the long-memory behavior is more important during non-crisis periods.

Original languageEnglish
Article number17
Pages (from-to)66-90
Number of pages25
JournalJournal of Financial Econometrics
Volume17
Issue number1
Early online date16 Nov 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2019

Keywords

  • fractional integration
  • heavy tails
  • matrix-F distribution
  • multivariate volatility
  • realized covariance matrices
  • score dynamics

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