Frequency violations from random disturbances: An MCMC approach

John Moriarty, Jure Vogrinc, Alessandro Zocca

Research output: Chapter in Book / Report / Conference proceedingConference contributionAcademicpeer-review


The frequency stability of power systems is increasingly challenged by various types of disturbance. In particular, the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources is increasing the variability of power generation while reducing system inertia against disturbances. In this paper we explore how this could give rise to rate of change of frequency (RoCoF) violations. Correlated and non -Gaussian power disturbances, such as may arise from renewable generation, have been shown to be significant in power system security analysis. We therefore introduce ghost sampling which, given any unconditional distribution of disturbances, efficiently produces samples conditional on a violation occurring. Our goal is to address questions such as 'which generator is most likely to be disconnected due to a RoCoF violation?' or 'what is the probability of having simultaneous RoCoF violations, given that a violation occurs?'

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication2018 IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, CDC 2018
PublisherInstitute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
Number of pages6
ISBN (Electronic)9781538613955
Publication statusPublished - 18 Jan 2019
Externally publishedYes
Event57th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, CDC 2018 - Miami, United States
Duration: 17 Dec 201819 Dec 2018

Publication series

NameProceedings of the IEEE Conference on Decision and Control
ISSN (Print)0743-1546


Conference57th IEEE Conference on Decision and Control, CDC 2018
Country/TerritoryUnited States


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