From climatic hazards to systemic vulnerabilities: Evolving perceptions of climate risk in Norway's renewable energy sector

The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly apparent, yet the influence of transitioning to a renewable, weather-dependent energy system on risk remains insufficiently examined. This article addresses this gap with three empirical case studies, including interviews and a sectoral survey, which explore how stakeholders in Norway's renewable energy sector perceive and interpret climate risk. While previous research on the effects of climate change on the energy system often predicts positive outcomes for production and demand, especially in Northern Europe, our findings highlight growing concerns about increasing risks. Firstly, there is an acknowledgement that previous assessments overestimated benefits such as reduced heating during warmer seasons and increased hydropower, while simultaneously underestimating hazards from extreme weather events and other threats. Secondly, it has become apparent that vulnerabilities driven by societal changes, in combination with climate change, influence climate risk. The study suggests that transitioning to a renewable energy system may introduce new vulnerabilities, as exemplified by the European energy crisis, which highlights how climatic and non-climatic factors collectively contribute to increasing energy prices and concerns about energy security. These insights enhance our understanding of climate risk in renewable energy systems and highlight the significance of integrated adaptation and governance strategies in creating resilient, low-risk energy futures.