From statistics to grids: A two-level model to simulate crop pattern dynamics

Crop planting patterns are an important component of agricultural land systems. These patterns have been significantly changed due to the combined impacts of climatic changes and socioeconomic developments. However, the extent of these changes and their possible impacts on the environment, terrestrial landscapes and rural livelihoods are largely unknown due to the lack of spatially explicit datasets including crop planting patterns. To fill this gap, this study proposes a new method for spatializing statistical data to generate multitemporal crop planting pattern datasets. This method features a two-level model that combines a land-use simulation and a crop pattern simulation. The output of the first level is the spatial distribution of the cropland, which is then used as the input for the second level, which allocates crop censuses to individual gridded cells according to certain rules. The method was tested using data from 2000 to 2019 from Heilongjiang Province, China, and was validated using remote sensing images. The results show that this method has high accuracy for crop area spatialization. Spatial crop pattern datasets over a given time period can be important supplementary information for remote sensing and thus support a wide range of application in agricultural land systems.