Futures of conflict risk, migration and equity implications: Complexity and irregularity in scenario projections

Sophie Pieternel de Bruin

Research output: PhD ThesisPhD-Thesis - Research and graduation internal

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Abstract

Integrated socioeconomic and environmental scenarios have matured over the past decades in terms of scientific methodology and policy relevance. Contrary to these advances, less progress has been made on scenarios of conflict, migration, and equity implications in the context of environmental and socioeconomic change. On the one hand, this is not surprising due to the complex, irregular and ethical dimensions involved which are hard to quantify. On the other hand, these societal dynamics can alter the effectiveness of sustainable development strategies, underlining the importance to better understand their possible future trajectories. The main objective of this thesis is to explore the possibilities to project futures of conflict, migration, and equity implications by using various methods (Machine Learning, literature-informed vulnerability overlays and expert elicitation), to advance the field of scenario studies.
Original languageEnglish
QualificationPhD
Awarding Institution
  • Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Supervisors/Advisors
  • van Vliet, Jasper, Supervisor
  • Verburg, Peter H., Supervisor
Award date3 Jul 2024
Print ISBNs9789493391055
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 3 Jul 2024

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