Global Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Storm Surges using High-Resolution Forecasts

N. Bloemendaal; S. Muis; Reindert J. Haarsma; Martin Verlaan; M. Irazoqui Apechchea; H. de Moel; P.J. Ward; J.C.J.H. Aerts

doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4430-x

Global Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Storm Surges using High-Resolution Forecasts

N. Bloemendaal
, S. Muis
, Reindert J. Haarsma
, Martin Verlaan
, M. Irazoqui Apechchea
, H. de Moel
, P.J. Ward
, J.C.J.H. Aerts

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

We assess the suitability of ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) data for the global modeling of tropical cyclone (TC) storm surges. We extract meteorological forcing from the IFS at a 0.225° horizontal resolution for eight historical TCs and simulate the corresponding surges using the global tide and surge model. Maximum surge heights for Hurricanes Irma and Sandy are compared with tide gauge observations, with R2-values of 0.86 and 0.74 respectively. Maximum surge heights for the other TCs are in line with literature. Our case studies demonstrate that a horizontal resolution of 0.225° is sufficient for the large-scale modeling of TC surges. By upscaling the meteorological forcing to coarser resolutions as low as 1.0°, we assess the effects of horizontal resolution on the performance of surge modeling. We demonstrate that coarser resolutions result in lower-modeled surges for all case studies, with modeled surges up to 1 m lower for Irma and Nargis. The largest differences in surges between the different resolutions are found for the TCs with the highest surges. We discuss possible drivers of maximum surge heights (TC size, intensity, and coastal slope and complexity), and find that coastal complexity and slope play a more profound role than TC size and intensity alone. The highest surges are found in areas with complex coastlines (fractal dimension > 1.10) and, in general, shallow coastlines. Our findings show that using high-resolution meteorological forcing is particularly beneficial for areas prone to high TC surges, since these surges are reduced the most in coarse-resolution datasets.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	5031–5044
Number of pages	14
Journal	Climate Dynamics
Volume	52
Issue number	7/8
Early online date	7 Sept 2018
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4430-x
Publication status	Published - 15 Apr 2019

Funding

We would like to thank the reviewers for their thoughtful comments and efforts towards improving our manuscript. We thank ECMWF for the use of the ECMWF IFS dataset. Access to IFS data was granted by the national meteorological services of ECMWF Member and Co-operating States. All other users can gain access to ECMWF forecast product under various license agreement types, see https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/accessing-forecasts/order-historical-datasets. We thank Jan Barkmeijer for sharing his expertise on ECMWF IFS. We also thank the participants of the 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change: from Hazard to Impact for the fruitful discussions on this topic. We thank SURFsara (http://www.surfsara.nl) for the support in using the Lisa Computer Cluster. NB, SM and JCJHA are funded by a VICI grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (Grant Number 453-13-006). RJH is funded by the PRIMAVERA project in the European Commission?s Horizon 2020 research programme (Grant Number 641727). MV and MIA are funded by the European Union?s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Number 687323). PJW is funded by a VIDI grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (Grant Number 016.161.324). Acknowledgements We would like to thank the reviewers for their thoughtful comments and efforts towards improving our manuscript. We thank ECMWF for the use of the ECMWF IFS dataset. Access to IFS data was granted by the national meteorological services of ECMWF Member and Co-operating States. All other users can gain access to ECMWF forecast product under various license agreement types, see https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/accessing-forecasts/ order-historical-datasets. We thank Jan Barkmeijer for sharing his expertise on ECMWF IFS. We also thank the participants of the 6th International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change: from Hazard to Impact for the fruitful discussions on this topic. We thank SURFsara (http://www.surfsara.nl) for the support in using the Lisa Computer Cluster. NB, SM and JCJHA are funded by a VICI grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (Grant Number 453-13-006). RJH is funded by the PRIMAVERA project in the European Commission’s Horizon 2020 research programme (Grant Number 641727). MV and MIA are funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (Grant Number 687323). PJW is funded by a VIDI grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (Grant Number 016.161.324).

Funders	Funder number
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek	453-13-006, 016.161.324
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme	641727, 687323, 016.161.324

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 14 Life Below Water

Keywords

ECMWF integrated forecasting system
GTSM
Global hydrodynamic model
Resolution effects

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https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4430-x

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title = "Global Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Storm Surges using High-Resolution Forecasts",

abstract = "We assess the suitability of ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) data for the global modeling of tropical cyclone (TC) storm surges. We extract meteorological forcing from the IFS at a 0.225° horizontal resolution for eight historical TCs and simulate the corresponding surges using the global tide and surge model. Maximum surge heights for Hurricanes Irma and Sandy are compared with tide gauge observations, with R2-values of 0.86 and 0.74 respectively. Maximum surge heights for the other TCs are in line with literature. Our case studies demonstrate that a horizontal resolution of 0.225° is sufficient for the large-scale modeling of TC surges. By upscaling the meteorological forcing to coarser resolutions as low as 1.0°, we assess the effects of horizontal resolution on the performance of surge modeling. We demonstrate that coarser resolutions result in lower-modeled surges for all case studies, with modeled surges up to 1 m lower for Irma and Nargis. The largest differences in surges between the different resolutions are found for the TCs with the highest surges. We discuss possible drivers of maximum surge heights (TC size, intensity, and coastal slope and complexity), and find that coastal complexity and slope play a more profound role than TC size and intensity alone. The highest surges are found in areas with complex coastlines (fractal dimension > 1.10) and, in general, shallow coastlines. Our findings show that using high-resolution meteorological forcing is particularly beneficial for areas prone to high TC surges, since these surges are reduced the most in coarse-resolution datasets.",

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author = "N. Bloemendaal and S. Muis and Haarsma, \{Reindert J.\} and Martin Verlaan and \{Irazoqui Apechchea\}, M. and \{de Moel\}, H. and P.J. Ward and J.C.J.H. Aerts",

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doi = "10.1007/s00382-018-4430-x",

language = "English",

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AU - Bloemendaal, N.

AU - Muis, S.

AU - Haarsma, Reindert J.

AU - Verlaan, Martin

AU - Irazoqui Apechchea, M.

AU - de Moel, H.

AU - Ward, P.J.

AU - Aerts, J.C.J.H.

PY - 2019/4/15

Y1 - 2019/4/15

N2 - We assess the suitability of ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) data for the global modeling of tropical cyclone (TC) storm surges. We extract meteorological forcing from the IFS at a 0.225° horizontal resolution for eight historical TCs and simulate the corresponding surges using the global tide and surge model. Maximum surge heights for Hurricanes Irma and Sandy are compared with tide gauge observations, with R2-values of 0.86 and 0.74 respectively. Maximum surge heights for the other TCs are in line with literature. Our case studies demonstrate that a horizontal resolution of 0.225° is sufficient for the large-scale modeling of TC surges. By upscaling the meteorological forcing to coarser resolutions as low as 1.0°, we assess the effects of horizontal resolution on the performance of surge modeling. We demonstrate that coarser resolutions result in lower-modeled surges for all case studies, with modeled surges up to 1 m lower for Irma and Nargis. The largest differences in surges between the different resolutions are found for the TCs with the highest surges. We discuss possible drivers of maximum surge heights (TC size, intensity, and coastal slope and complexity), and find that coastal complexity and slope play a more profound role than TC size and intensity alone. The highest surges are found in areas with complex coastlines (fractal dimension > 1.10) and, in general, shallow coastlines. Our findings show that using high-resolution meteorological forcing is particularly beneficial for areas prone to high TC surges, since these surges are reduced the most in coarse-resolution datasets.

AB - We assess the suitability of ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) data for the global modeling of tropical cyclone (TC) storm surges. We extract meteorological forcing from the IFS at a 0.225° horizontal resolution for eight historical TCs and simulate the corresponding surges using the global tide and surge model. Maximum surge heights for Hurricanes Irma and Sandy are compared with tide gauge observations, with R2-values of 0.86 and 0.74 respectively. Maximum surge heights for the other TCs are in line with literature. Our case studies demonstrate that a horizontal resolution of 0.225° is sufficient for the large-scale modeling of TC surges. By upscaling the meteorological forcing to coarser resolutions as low as 1.0°, we assess the effects of horizontal resolution on the performance of surge modeling. We demonstrate that coarser resolutions result in lower-modeled surges for all case studies, with modeled surges up to 1 m lower for Irma and Nargis. The largest differences in surges between the different resolutions are found for the TCs with the highest surges. We discuss possible drivers of maximum surge heights (TC size, intensity, and coastal slope and complexity), and find that coastal complexity and slope play a more profound role than TC size and intensity alone. The highest surges are found in areas with complex coastlines (fractal dimension > 1.10) and, in general, shallow coastlines. Our findings show that using high-resolution meteorological forcing is particularly beneficial for areas prone to high TC surges, since these surges are reduced the most in coarse-resolution datasets.

KW - ECMWF integrated forecasting system

KW - GTSM

KW - Global hydrodynamic model

KW - Resolution effects

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JO - Climate Dynamics

JF - Climate Dynamics

IS - 7/8

ER -

Global Modeling of Tropical Cyclone Storm Surges using High-Resolution Forecasts

Abstract

Funding

UN SDGs

Keywords

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