Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High-Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models

Sanne Muis; Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts; José A. José; Job C. Dullaart; Trang Minh Duong; Li Erikson; Rein J. Haarsma; Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea; Matthias Mengel; Dewi Le Bars; Andrea O’Neill; Roshanka Ranasinghe; Malcolm J. Roberts; Martin Verlaan; Philip J. Ward; Kun Yan

doi:10.1029/2023EF003479

Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High-Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models

Sanne Muis^*, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts, José A. José, Job C. Dullaart, Trang Minh Duong, Li Erikson, Rein J. Haarsma, Maialen Irazoqui Apecechea, Matthias Mengel, Dewi Le Bars, Andrea O’Neill, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Malcolm J. Roberts, Martin Verlaan, Philip J. Ward, Kun Yan

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This is the first time that such a high-resolution ensemble is used to assess changes in future storm surges across the globe. We validate the present epoch (1985–2014) against the ERA5 climate reanalysis, which shows a good overall agreement. However, there is a clear spatial bias with generally a positive bias in coastal areas along semi-enclosed seas and negative bias in equatorial regions. Comparing the future epoch (2021–2050) against the historical epoch (1951–1980), we project ensemble-median changes up to 0.1 (or 20%) in the 1 in 10-year storm surge levels. These changes are not uniform across the globe with decreases along the coast of Mediterranean and northern Africa and southern Australia and increases along the south coast of Australia and Alaska. There are also increases along (parts) of the coasts of northern Caribbean, eastern Africa, China and the Korean peninsula, but with less agreement among the HighResMIP ensemble. Information resulting from this study can be used to inform broad-scale assessment of coastal impacts under future climate change.

Original language	English
Article number	e2023EF003479
Pages (from-to)	1-17
Number of pages	17
Journal	Earth's Future
Volume	11
Issue number	9
Early online date	13 Sept 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003479
Publication status	Published - Sept 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The research leading to these results received funding from the Deltares Strategic Research Program. Additional work to make these results openly available was funded by Contract C3S‐422‐Lot2‐Deltares European Services of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (11200665‐003). SM and PJW received additional funding from the MOSAIC research program (ASDI.2018.036), which is financed by the Dutch Research Council (NWO). PJW received funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) in the form of a VIDI grant (Grant 016.161.324). JAE received funding from ERC Advanced Grant project COASTMOVE (Grant 884442) and NWO VICI (Grant 453‐13‐006). RR was supported by the AXA Research Fund and the Deltares Natural Hazards Strategic Research Program. The CMIP6 HighResMIP data sets (available on the Earth System Grid Federation) were produced as part of the EU H2020 PRIMAVERA project (Grant Agreement 641727). MJR was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101). We acknowledge that the results of this research have been achieved using the DECI resource Cartesius based in The Netherland at SURFsara at with support from the PRACE aisbl. We thank Maxime Moge from SURFsara ( http://www.surfsara.nl ) for his support in using the Cartesius Computer Cluster. The authors also acknowledge Remco Plieger, Menno Genseberger, Robyn Gwee and Jelmer Veenstra for their contributions to this project.

Funding Information:
The research leading to these results received funding from the Deltares Strategic Research Program. Additional work to make these results openly available was funded by Contract C3S-422-Lot2-Deltares European Services of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (11200665-003). SM and PJW received additional funding from the MOSAIC research program (ASDI.2018.036), which is financed by the Dutch Research Council (NWO). PJW received funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) in the form of a VIDI grant (Grant 016.161.324). JAE received funding from ERC Advanced Grant project COASTMOVE (Grant 884442) and NWO VICI (Grant 453-13-006). RR was supported by the AXA Research Fund and the Deltares Natural Hazards Strategic Research Program. The CMIP6 HighResMIP data sets (available on the Earth System Grid Federation) were produced as part of the EU H2020 PRIMAVERA project (Grant Agreement 641727). MJR was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101). We acknowledge that the results of this research have been achieved using the DECI resource Cartesius based in The Netherland at SURFsara at with support from the PRACE aisbl. We thank Maxime Moge from SURFsara (http://www.surfsara.nl) for his support in using the Cartesius Computer Cluster. The authors also acknowledge Remco Plieger, Menno Genseberger, Robyn Gwee and Jelmer Veenstra for their contributions to this project.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.

Funding

The research leading to these results received funding from the Deltares Strategic Research Program. Additional work to make these results openly available was funded by Contract C3S‐422‐Lot2‐Deltares European Services of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (11200665‐003). SM and PJW received additional funding from the MOSAIC research program (ASDI.2018.036), which is financed by the Dutch Research Council (NWO). PJW received funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) in the form of a VIDI grant (Grant 016.161.324). JAE received funding from ERC Advanced Grant project COASTMOVE (Grant 884442) and NWO VICI (Grant 453‐13‐006). RR was supported by the AXA Research Fund and the Deltares Natural Hazards Strategic Research Program. The CMIP6 HighResMIP data sets (available on the Earth System Grid Federation) were produced as part of the EU H2020 PRIMAVERA project (Grant Agreement 641727). MJR was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101). We acknowledge that the results of this research have been achieved using the DECI resource Cartesius based in The Netherland at SURFsara at with support from the PRACE aisbl. We thank Maxime Moge from SURFsara ( http://www.surfsara.nl ) for his support in using the Cartesius Computer Cluster. The authors also acknowledge Remco Plieger, Menno Genseberger, Robyn Gwee and Jelmer Veenstra for their contributions to this project. The research leading to these results received funding from the Deltares Strategic Research Program. Additional work to make these results openly available was funded by Contract C3S-422-Lot2-Deltares European Services of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (11200665-003). SM and PJW received additional funding from the MOSAIC research program (ASDI.2018.036), which is financed by the Dutch Research Council (NWO). PJW received funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) in the form of a VIDI grant (Grant 016.161.324). JAE received funding from ERC Advanced Grant project COASTMOVE (Grant 884442) and NWO VICI (Grant 453-13-006). RR was supported by the AXA Research Fund and the Deltares Natural Hazards Strategic Research Program. The CMIP6 HighResMIP data sets (available on the Earth System Grid Federation) were produced as part of the EU H2020 PRIMAVERA project (Grant Agreement 641727). MJR was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101). We acknowledge that the results of this research have been achieved using the DECI resource Cartesius based in The Netherland at SURFsara at with support from the PRACE aisbl. We thank Maxime Moge from SURFsara (http://www.surfsara.nl) for his support in using the Cartesius Computer Cluster. The authors also acknowledge Remco Plieger, Menno Genseberger, Robyn Gwee and Jelmer Veenstra for their contributions to this project.

Funders	Funder number
Copernicus Climate Change Service	11200665‐003
Deltares Natural Hazards Strategic Research Program
EU H2020	641727
Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme
Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, UK Government
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government	GA01101
Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government
European Research Council	884442, 453‐13‐006
European Research Council
Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe AISBL
AXA Research Fund
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek	016.161.324
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek

Keywords

climate change
climate projections
extreme sea levels
global climate model
hydrodynamic modeling
storm surge

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10.1029/2023EF003479

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Cite this

Muis, S., Aerts, J. C. J. H., José, J. A., Dullaart, J. C., Duong, T. M., Erikson, L., Haarsma, R. J., Apecechea, M. I., Mengel, M., Le Bars, D., O’Neill, A., Ranasinghe, R., Roberts, M. J., Verlaan, M., Ward, P. J., & Yan, K. (2023). Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High-Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models. Earth's Future, 11(9), 1-17. Article e2023EF003479. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003479

@article{c04d9353a1e54904bd386056738babd4,

title = "Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High-Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models",

abstract = "In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This is the first time that such a high-resolution ensemble is used to assess changes in future storm surges across the globe. We validate the present epoch (1985–2014) against the ERA5 climate reanalysis, which shows a good overall agreement. However, there is a clear spatial bias with generally a positive bias in coastal areas along semi-enclosed seas and negative bias in equatorial regions. Comparing the future epoch (2021–2050) against the historical epoch (1951–1980), we project ensemble-median changes up to 0.1 (or 20%) in the 1 in 10-year storm surge levels. These changes are not uniform across the globe with decreases along the coast of Mediterranean and northern Africa and southern Australia and increases along the south coast of Australia and Alaska. There are also increases along (parts) of the coasts of northern Caribbean, eastern Africa, China and the Korean peninsula, but with less agreement among the HighResMIP ensemble. Information resulting from this study can be used to inform broad-scale assessment of coastal impacts under future climate change.",

keywords = "climate change, climate projections, extreme sea levels, global climate model, hydrodynamic modeling, storm surge",

author = "Sanne Muis and Aerts, {Jeroen C.J.H.} and Jos{\'e}, {Jos{\'e} A.} and Dullaart, {Job C.} and Duong, {Trang Minh} and Li Erikson and Haarsma, {Rein J.} and Apecechea, {Maialen Irazoqui} and Matthias Mengel and {Le Bars}, Dewi and Andrea O{\textquoteright}Neill and Roshanka Ranasinghe and Roberts, {Malcolm J.} and Martin Verlaan and Ward, {Philip J.} and Kun Yan",

note = "Funding Information: The research leading to these results received funding from the Deltares Strategic Research Program. Additional work to make these results openly available was funded by Contract C3S‐422‐Lot2‐Deltares European Services of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (11200665‐003). SM and PJW received additional funding from the MOSAIC research program (ASDI.2018.036), which is financed by the Dutch Research Council (NWO). PJW received funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) in the form of a VIDI grant (Grant 016.161.324). JAE received funding from ERC Advanced Grant project COASTMOVE (Grant 884442) and NWO VICI (Grant 453‐13‐006). RR was supported by the AXA Research Fund and the Deltares Natural Hazards Strategic Research Program. The CMIP6 HighResMIP data sets (available on the Earth System Grid Federation) were produced as part of the EU H2020 PRIMAVERA project (Grant Agreement 641727). MJR was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101). We acknowledge that the results of this research have been achieved using the DECI resource Cartesius based in The Netherland at SURFsara at with support from the PRACE aisbl. We thank Maxime Moge from SURFsara ( http://www.surfsara.nl ) for his support in using the Cartesius Computer Cluster. The authors also acknowledge Remco Plieger, Menno Genseberger, Robyn Gwee and Jelmer Veenstra for their contributions to this project. Funding Information: The research leading to these results received funding from the Deltares Strategic Research Program. Additional work to make these results openly available was funded by Contract C3S-422-Lot2-Deltares European Services of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (11200665-003). SM and PJW received additional funding from the MOSAIC research program (ASDI.2018.036), which is financed by the Dutch Research Council (NWO). PJW received funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) in the form of a VIDI grant (Grant 016.161.324). JAE received funding from ERC Advanced Grant project COASTMOVE (Grant 884442) and NWO VICI (Grant 453-13-006). RR was supported by the AXA Research Fund and the Deltares Natural Hazards Strategic Research Program. The CMIP6 HighResMIP data sets (available on the Earth System Grid Federation) were produced as part of the EU H2020 PRIMAVERA project (Grant Agreement 641727). MJR was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101). We acknowledge that the results of this research have been achieved using the DECI resource Cartesius based in The Netherland at SURFsara at with support from the PRACE aisbl. We thank Maxime Moge from SURFsara (http://www.surfsara.nl) for his support in using the Cartesius Computer Cluster. The authors also acknowledge Remco Plieger, Menno Genseberger, Robyn Gwee and Jelmer Veenstra for their contributions to this project. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.",

year = "2023",

month = sep,

doi = "10.1029/2023EF003479",

language = "English",

volume = "11",

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Muis, S , Aerts, JCJH, José, JA, Dullaart, JC, Duong, TM, Erikson, L, Haarsma, RJ, Apecechea, MI, Mengel, M, Le Bars, D, O’Neill, A, Ranasinghe, R, Roberts, MJ, Verlaan, M, Ward, PJ & Yan, K 2023, 'Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High-Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models', Earth's Future, vol. 11, no. 9, e2023EF003479, pp. 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003479

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High-Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models

AU - Muis, Sanne

AU - Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.

AU - José, José A.

AU - Dullaart, Job C.

AU - Duong, Trang Minh

AU - Erikson, Li

AU - Haarsma, Rein J.

AU - Apecechea, Maialen Irazoqui

AU - Mengel, Matthias

AU - Le Bars, Dewi

AU - O’Neill, Andrea

AU - Ranasinghe, Roshanka

AU - Roberts, Malcolm J.

AU - Verlaan, Martin

AU - Ward, Philip J.

AU - Yan, Kun

N1 - Funding Information: The research leading to these results received funding from the Deltares Strategic Research Program. Additional work to make these results openly available was funded by Contract C3S‐422‐Lot2‐Deltares European Services of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (11200665‐003). SM and PJW received additional funding from the MOSAIC research program (ASDI.2018.036), which is financed by the Dutch Research Council (NWO). PJW received funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) in the form of a VIDI grant (Grant 016.161.324). JAE received funding from ERC Advanced Grant project COASTMOVE (Grant 884442) and NWO VICI (Grant 453‐13‐006). RR was supported by the AXA Research Fund and the Deltares Natural Hazards Strategic Research Program. The CMIP6 HighResMIP data sets (available on the Earth System Grid Federation) were produced as part of the EU H2020 PRIMAVERA project (Grant Agreement 641727). MJR was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101). We acknowledge that the results of this research have been achieved using the DECI resource Cartesius based in The Netherland at SURFsara at with support from the PRACE aisbl. We thank Maxime Moge from SURFsara ( http://www.surfsara.nl ) for his support in using the Cartesius Computer Cluster. The authors also acknowledge Remco Plieger, Menno Genseberger, Robyn Gwee and Jelmer Veenstra for their contributions to this project. Funding Information: The research leading to these results received funding from the Deltares Strategic Research Program. Additional work to make these results openly available was funded by Contract C3S-422-Lot2-Deltares European Services of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (11200665-003). SM and PJW received additional funding from the MOSAIC research program (ASDI.2018.036), which is financed by the Dutch Research Council (NWO). PJW received funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) in the form of a VIDI grant (Grant 016.161.324). JAE received funding from ERC Advanced Grant project COASTMOVE (Grant 884442) and NWO VICI (Grant 453-13-006). RR was supported by the AXA Research Fund and the Deltares Natural Hazards Strategic Research Program. The CMIP6 HighResMIP data sets (available on the Earth System Grid Federation) were produced as part of the EU H2020 PRIMAVERA project (Grant Agreement 641727). MJR was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (GA01101). We acknowledge that the results of this research have been achieved using the DECI resource Cartesius based in The Netherland at SURFsara at with support from the PRACE aisbl. We thank Maxime Moge from SURFsara (http://www.surfsara.nl) for his support in using the Cartesius Computer Cluster. The authors also acknowledge Remco Plieger, Menno Genseberger, Robyn Gwee and Jelmer Veenstra for their contributions to this project. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.

PY - 2023/9

Y1 - 2023/9

N2 - In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This is the first time that such a high-resolution ensemble is used to assess changes in future storm surges across the globe. We validate the present epoch (1985–2014) against the ERA5 climate reanalysis, which shows a good overall agreement. However, there is a clear spatial bias with generally a positive bias in coastal areas along semi-enclosed seas and negative bias in equatorial regions. Comparing the future epoch (2021–2050) against the historical epoch (1951–1980), we project ensemble-median changes up to 0.1 (or 20%) in the 1 in 10-year storm surge levels. These changes are not uniform across the globe with decreases along the coast of Mediterranean and northern Africa and southern Australia and increases along the south coast of Australia and Alaska. There are also increases along (parts) of the coasts of northern Caribbean, eastern Africa, China and the Korean peninsula, but with less agreement among the HighResMIP ensemble. Information resulting from this study can be used to inform broad-scale assessment of coastal impacts under future climate change.

AB - In the coming decades, coastal flooding will become more frequent due to sea-level rise and potential changes in storms. To produce global storm surge projections from 1950 to 2050, we force the Global Tide and Surge Model with a ∼25-km resolution climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP). This is the first time that such a high-resolution ensemble is used to assess changes in future storm surges across the globe. We validate the present epoch (1985–2014) against the ERA5 climate reanalysis, which shows a good overall agreement. However, there is a clear spatial bias with generally a positive bias in coastal areas along semi-enclosed seas and negative bias in equatorial regions. Comparing the future epoch (2021–2050) against the historical epoch (1951–1980), we project ensemble-median changes up to 0.1 (or 20%) in the 1 in 10-year storm surge levels. These changes are not uniform across the globe with decreases along the coast of Mediterranean and northern Africa and southern Australia and increases along the south coast of Australia and Alaska. There are also increases along (parts) of the coasts of northern Caribbean, eastern Africa, China and the Korean peninsula, but with less agreement among the HighResMIP ensemble. Information resulting from this study can be used to inform broad-scale assessment of coastal impacts under future climate change.

KW - climate change

KW - climate projections

KW - extreme sea levels

KW - global climate model

KW - hydrodynamic modeling

KW - storm surge

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U2 - 10.1029/2023EF003479

DO - 10.1029/2023EF003479

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VL - 11

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JO - Earth's Future

JF - Earth's Future

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M1 - e2023EF003479

ER -

Global Projections of Storm Surges Using High-Resolution CMIP6 Climate Models

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