GLOF hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk assessment of potentially dangerous glacial lakes in the Bhutan Himalaya

Sonam Rinzin, Guoqing Zhang*, Ashim Sattar, Sonam Wangchuk, Simon K. Allen, Stuart Dunning, Menger Peng

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

Deglaciation due to atmospheric warming has led to the formation and expansion of numerous glacial lakes, especially in the eastern Himalaya. Many of these glacial lakes are susceptible to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which can cause far-reaching impacts on downstream infrastructure and livelihoods. This study is a comprehensive assessment of GLOF susceptibility, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and risk for four potentially dangerous glacial lakes (Bechung Tsho, Raphstreng Tsho, Thorthomi Tsho, and Lugge Tsho) located in the Lunana glacier complex of the Phochu basin in Bhutan. Exposure and risk assessments were based on modelled GLOF hydrodynamics, infrastructure data, population and housing census data. Among the four glacial lakes, Thorthormi Tsho and Lugge Tsho are relatively more susceptible to outburst floods than Raphstreng Tsho and Bechung Tsho. Outflow flood volumes from these lakes range between 6 × 105 and 3 × 108 m3 which can potentially impact over 16,000 people, two hydropower projects, numerous other infrastructures, and agricultural land up to 150 km downstream of the lakes. The GLOF exposed elements are largely in Punakha and Wangdue Phodrang districts, which are located 90 and 100 km downstream of the Lunana glacier complex respectively. Among 17 subdistrict blocks within the basin, one (Lunana) lies in a very high GLOF risk area, while 9 others are in the high GLOF risk zone. The study highlights the importance of multi-source data in improving the knowledge of downstream GLOF risk and serves as a base for improving GLOF risk reduction strategies in high mountain regions.

Original languageEnglish
Article number129311
Pages (from-to)1-19
Number of pages19
JournalJournal of Hydrology
Volume619
Early online date26 Feb 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Apr 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This study was supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program (A) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20100300), the grants from the Natural Science Foundation of China (41988101-03, 41871056, 41831177). Sonam Rinzin is grateful to his research Colleagues (Wenfeng Chen, Mengmeng Wang, Fenglin Xu, Tao Zhou, Jinzhou Wu, Mengjie Zhao, Xue Wang, Qian Tang) for their technical and useful comments on improving this research article. Sonam Rinzin is also thankful to the Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Belt and Road Master Fellowship programme for supporting his master’s studies. We are thankful to the National Centre for Hydrology and Meteorology of Bhutan for helping us collecting field data.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Elsevier B.V.

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