Het concretiseren van beleidsdoelen in een verder weg gelegen toekomst; is dat nuttig? De WRR-studie ‘Doorgroei van arbeidsparticipatie’ uit 2000 als casus

This article discusses the usefulness of setting concrete future policy goals by taking the 2000 WRR (Scientific Council for Government Policy) report on labor market dynamics and further growth in labour participation as an example. With a so-called growth scenario over the period 2000-2020, that study looked at the obstacles that could arise if this further growth of the participation rate would materialize, and what policy measures could help to remove these obstacles. An important policy goal appeared to be fulfilled in 2020, namely to keep women and older men at work. The participation of these groups is currently even higher than anticipated in the growth scenario. Looking back at this study shows that it is useful to quantify possible future developments in the labour market in a scenario. The way of setting up the scenario analysis in the WRR report at the time can be regarded as a way in between a goal setting, normative approach and a positive approach. However, at the moment very different policy tasks require attention than in 2000.