Heterogeneous Beliefs and Climate Catastrophes

T. Kiseleva

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

We study how heterogeneous beliefs about the causes and extent of global warming affect local mitigation and adaptation strategies and therefore global climate dynamics. Local policies are determined by expectations of policy makers about future climate. There are three types of expectations: strong skeptic, weak skeptic and ‘science-based’. Strong skeptics deny human-induced climate change and a possibility of a climate catastrophe. Weak skeptics believe that industrial emissions cause global warming, but deny catastrophic climate change. Science-based policy makers, considering the warning of the scientific community, account for both: human influence on climate and possible catastrophic shifts. Aggregate behavior of policy makers determines the total emission level which influences global climate dynamics. The paper argues that even if there are only skeptical policy makers the climate catastrophe can still be avoided.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)599-622
Number of pages24
JournalEnvironmental and Resource Economics
Volume65
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2016

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Global warming
Climate change
Industrial emissions
climate
global climate
global warming
climate change
industrial emission
mitigation
catastrophe
policy
Catastrophe
Climate
Heterogeneous beliefs
Politicians
science

Keywords

  • Adaptation
  • Catastrophes
  • Climate change
  • Heterogeneous beliefs
  • Skepticism

Cite this

Kiseleva, T. / Heterogeneous Beliefs and Climate Catastrophes. In: Environmental and Resource Economics. 2016 ; Vol. 65, No. 3. pp. 599-622.
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Heterogeneous Beliefs and Climate Catastrophes. / Kiseleva, T.

In: Environmental and Resource Economics, Vol. 65, No. 3, 01.11.2016, p. 599-622.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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