Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk

Trond G. Husby*, Elco E. Koks

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Detailed estimates of economy-wide disaster losses provide important inputs for disaster risk management. The most common models used to estimate losses are input–output (IO) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. A key strength of these models is their ability to capture the ripple effects, whereby the impacts of a disaster are transmitted to regions and sectors that are not directly affected by the event. One important transmission channel is household migration. Changes in the spatial distribution of people are likely to have substantial impacts on local labour and housing markets. In this paper, we argue that IO and CGE models suffer from limitations in representing household migration under disaster risk. We suggest combining IO and CGE models with agent-based models to improve the representation of migration in disaster impact analysis.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)287-305
Number of pages19
JournalNatural Hazards
Volume87
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 May 2017

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Keywords

  • Agent-based models
  • Computable general equilibrium
  • Disaster risk
  • Households migration
  • Input–output

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