Abstract
The rolling cross-section (RCS) is a relatively new and promising technique to study
campaign dynamics. As there are some important similarities between RCS data and
the data registered by voting advice applications (VAAs), it is interesting to
investigate the possibilities of applying RCS methods on VAA data, something that
has never been done before. In this paper, Dutch VAA data are used to study how
televised debates of party leaders affect evaluations of these leaders by focusing on
two left-wing parties, and how these evaluations affect party support during the
campaign for the 2012 Dutch legislative elections. Results show that the ratings of
social-democrat party leader Diederik Samsom are boosted by his performance in the
television debates, and that these increasingly positive evaluations have a positive
influence on support for his party. No effects of the performance of socialist party
leader Emile Roemer have been found; however, a strong relation between his
evaluation and support for the SP could be established. The results are discussed in
light of the advantages and disadvantages of non-probability VAA datasets. A
weighting technique is applied to control for selection effects. The findings should be
taken with caution, as conclusions could not be generalized to the Dutch population.
However, VAA data do allow examining causal effects, which introduces great
potential for future research.
campaign dynamics. As there are some important similarities between RCS data and
the data registered by voting advice applications (VAAs), it is interesting to
investigate the possibilities of applying RCS methods on VAA data, something that
has never been done before. In this paper, Dutch VAA data are used to study how
televised debates of party leaders affect evaluations of these leaders by focusing on
two left-wing parties, and how these evaluations affect party support during the
campaign for the 2012 Dutch legislative elections. Results show that the ratings of
social-democrat party leader Diederik Samsom are boosted by his performance in the
television debates, and that these increasingly positive evaluations have a positive
influence on support for his party. No effects of the performance of socialist party
leader Emile Roemer have been found; however, a strong relation between his
evaluation and support for the SP could be established. The results are discussed in
light of the advantages and disadvantages of non-probability VAA datasets. A
weighting technique is applied to control for selection effects. The findings should be
taken with caution, as conclusions could not be generalized to the Dutch population.
However, VAA data do allow examining causal effects, which introduces great
potential for future research.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Number of pages | 26 |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Mar 2015 |
| Event | PSA 65th Annual International Conference - Sheffield, Sheffield, United Kingdom Duration: 30 Mar 2015 → 1 Apr 2015 https://www.psa.ac.uk/conference/conference-highlights-2015 |
Conference
| Conference | PSA 65th Annual International Conference |
|---|---|
| Country/Territory | United Kingdom |
| City | Sheffield |
| Period | 30/03/15 → 1/04/15 |
| Internet address |
