How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

Timo Kelder; Dorothy Heinrich; Lisette Klok; Vikki Thompson; Henrique M.D. Goulart; Ed Hawkins; Louise J. Slater; Laura Suarez-Gutierrez; Robert L. Wilby; Erin Coughlan de Perez; Elisabeth M. Stephens; Stephen Burt; Bart van den Hurk; Hylke de Vries; Karin van der Wiel; E. Lisa F. Schipper; Antonio Carmona Baéz; Ellen van Bueren; Erich M. Fischer

doi:10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0

How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

Timo Kelder^*, Dorothy Heinrich, Lisette Klok, Vikki Thompson, Henrique M.D. Goulart, Ed Hawkins, Louise J. Slater, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Robert L. Wilby, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Elisabeth M. Stephens, Stephen Burt, Bart van den Hurk, Hylke de Vries, Karin van der Wiel, E. Lisa F. Schipper, Antonio Carmona Baéz, Ellen van Bueren, Erich M. Fischer

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.

Original language	English
Article number	2382
Pages (from-to)	1-15
Number of pages	15
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	16
Issue number	1
Early online date	10 Mar 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0
Publication status	Published - 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2025.

Access to Document

10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0Licence: CC BY

Persistent URL (handle)

Persistent link

Cite this

Kelder, T., Heinrich, D., Klok, L., Thompson, V., Goulart, H. M. D., Hawkins, E., Slater, L. J., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Wilby, R. L., Coughlan de Perez, E., Stephens, E. M., Burt, S., van den Hurk, B., de Vries, H., van der Wiel, K., Schipper, E. L. F., Carmona Baéz, A., van Bueren, E., & Fischer, E. M. (2025). How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather. Nature Communications, 16(1), 1-15. Article 2382. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0

@article{23c895eb64ec4c22b573780ed3656a75,

title = "How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather",

abstract = "We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.",

author = "Timo Kelder and Dorothy Heinrich and Lisette Klok and Vikki Thompson and Goulart, {Henrique M.D.} and Ed Hawkins and Slater, {Louise J.} and Laura Suarez-Gutierrez and Wilby, {Robert L.} and {Coughlan de Perez}, Erin and Stephens, {Elisabeth M.} and Stephen Burt and {van den Hurk}, Bart and {de Vries}, Hylke and {van der Wiel}, Karin and Schipper, {E. Lisa F.} and {Carmona Ba{\'e}z}, Antonio and {van Bueren}, Ellen and Fischer, {Erich M.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2025.",

year = "2025",

doi = "10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0",

language = "English",

volume = "16",

pages = "1--15",

journal = "Nature Communications",

issn = "2041-1723",

publisher = "Nature Research",

number = "1",

}

Kelder, T, Heinrich, D, Klok, L, Thompson, V, Goulart, HMD, Hawkins, E, Slater, LJ, Suarez-Gutierrez, L, Wilby, RL, Coughlan de Perez, E, Stephens, EM, Burt, S, van den Hurk, B, de Vries, H, van der Wiel, K, Schipper, ELF, Carmona Baéz, A, van Bueren, E & Fischer, EM 2025, 'How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather', Nature Communications, vol. 16, no. 1, 2382, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0

TY - JOUR

T1 - How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

AU - Kelder, Timo

AU - Heinrich, Dorothy

AU - Klok, Lisette

AU - Thompson, Vikki

AU - Goulart, Henrique M.D.

AU - Hawkins, Ed

AU - Slater, Louise J.

AU - Suarez-Gutierrez, Laura

AU - Wilby, Robert L.

AU - Coughlan de Perez, Erin

AU - Stephens, Elisabeth M.

AU - Burt, Stephen

AU - van den Hurk, Bart

AU - de Vries, Hylke

AU - van der Wiel, Karin

AU - Schipper, E. Lisa F.

AU - Carmona Baéz, Antonio

AU - van Bueren, Ellen

AU - Fischer, Erich M.

PY - 2025

Y1 - 2025

N2 - We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.

AB - We see unprecedented weather causing widespread impacts across the world. In this perspective, we provide an overview of methods that help anticipate unprecedented weather hazards that can contribute to stop being surprised. We then discuss disaster management and climate adaptation practices, their gaps, and how the methods to anticipate unprecedented weather may help build resilience. We stimulate thinking about transformative adaptation as a foundation for long-term resilience to unprecedented weather, supported by incremental adaptation through upgrading existing infrastructure, and reactive adaptation through short-term early action and disaster response. Because in the end, we should take responsibility to build resilience rather than being surprised by unprecedented weather.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=105000086677&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=105000086677&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0

DO - 10.1038/s41467-025-57450-0

M3 - Article

C2 - 40064852

AN - SCOPUS:105000086677

SN - 2041-1723

VL - 16

SP - 1

EP - 15

JO - Nature Communications

JF - Nature Communications

IS - 1

M1 - 2382

ER -

How to stop being surprised by unprecedented weather

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Access to Document

Persistent URL (handle)

Other files and links

Cite this