How will land degradation neutrality change future land system patterns? A scenario simulation study

Katharina Schulze*, Žiga Malek, Peter H. Verburg

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

Land degradation is a major global issue and achieving a land degradation-neutral world is one of the Sustainable Development Goals. However, striving for land degradation neutrality (LDN) is challenged by increasing claims on land resources and could result in major land use conflicts. The aim of this study is to demonstrate how LDN can be implemented in land system modelling and how achieving LDN alongside sufficient supplies of food, timber and shelter could affect future land system patterns, using the Republic of Turkey as a case study. We developed a LDN scenario with full implementation of the guidelines and a business-as-usual scenario without pursuing LDN, and compared the resulting differences in land system changes. Additionally, the influence of different elements of the LDN framework on the land use projections was tested. Our results show that although it is possible to achieve LDN in the context of increasing demands for resources and housing, it might require a considerable re-organization of the land systems. Intensification of annual cropland systems was the main driver of new land degradation, which was in the LDN scenario primarily counterbalanced by large areas of afforestation, while other land improvement options only played a minor role. To achieve a no-net-loss, about 20% of Turkey's territory was afforested in our scenario, mainly claiming extensively used annual cropland (∼70%) and grassland (∼30%). All individual LDN principles had a substantial impact on the final land system patterns meaning that the final outcome is not the result of just one of the principles, it is affected by all. Our findings suggest that pursuing LDN under growing demands for land-based products could stimulate a land sparing approach which might have trade-offs with other sustainability dimensions. This highlights the need for local support and new solutions for rural areas, thereby avoiding poverty, migration and illegal use of restoration areas.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)254-266
Number of pages13
JournalEnvironmental Science & Policy
Volume124
Early online date7 Jul 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from the European Commission through the European Research Council under the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme, project ID 311819 (GLOLAND).

Funding Information:
The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from the European Commission through the European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme, project ID 311819 (GLOLAND).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Author(s)

Copyright:
Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

Keywords

  • LDN
  • Land use change
  • SDG 15
  • Life on Land
  • Mediterranean
  • Turkey
  • Agricultural systems
  • Drylands

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