Identifying data challenges to representing human decision-making in large-scale land-use models

Derek T. Robinson, Jasper van Vliet, Calum Brown, Nicholas Dendoncker, Sascha Holzhauer, Darren Moseley, Gregor Vulturius, Mark D.A. Rounsevell

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Abstract

Land-use models are by now an accepted method in scientific research, both to increase our understanding of land-use change processes and to project future land-use trajectories. Many of these models simulate changes as a function of spatial data layers, such as elevation, accessibility and soil type. However, land-use changes are ultimately the result of human decisions. Therefore representing human decision-making processes in models is essential to advance our understanding of land-use change processes as well as our capacity to support policy making. Agent-based models allow human decision-making to be represented explicitly. However, their application is constrained by the availability of data about actors and their decision-making processes. Empirical data can be obtained from case studies, but the geographic extent of these case studies is constrained by time and resources. Therefore we argue that we need new sources of data to support model representation of these processes. In this chapter, we further specify this data demand and discuss potential methods of data acquisition. Data acquisition methods include metastudies, aligning with various ongoing large-scale data collection efforts, dedicated projects and crowdsourcing.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationMapping and Forecasting Land Use
Subtitle of host publicationThe Present and Future of Planning
EditorsPaulo Pereira, Eduardo Gomes, Jorge Rocha
PublisherElsevier
Chapter5
Pages115-126
Number of pages12
ISBN (Electronic)9780323909488
ISBN (Print)9780323909471
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Keywords

  • agent-based modelling
  • institutions
  • land managers
  • Land-use change
  • model development

VU Research Profile

  • Science for Sustainability

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