Identifying populations at ultra-high risk of suicide using a novel machine learning method

Guus Berkelmans*, Lizanne Schweren, Sandjai Bhulai, Rob van der Mei, Renske Gilissen

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Background: Targeted interventions for suicide prevention rely on adequate identification of groups at elevated risk. Several risk factors for suicide are known, but little is known about the interactions between risk factors. Interactions between risk factors may aid in detecting more specific sub-populations at higher risk. Methods: Here, we use a novel machine learning heuristic to detect sub-populations at ultra high-risk for suicide based on interacting risk factors. The data-driven and hypothesis-free model is applied to investigate data covering the entire population of the Netherlands. Findings: We found three sub-populations with extremely high suicide rates (i.e. >50 suicides per 100,000 person years, compared to 12/100,000 in the general population), namely: (1) people on unfit for work benefits that were never married, (2) males on unfit for work benefits, and (3) those aged 55–69 who live alone, were never married and have a relatively low household income. Additionally, we found two sub-populations where the rate was higher than expected based on individual risk factors alone: widowed males, and people aged 25–39 with a low level of education. Interpretation: Our model is effective at finding ultra-high risk groups which can be targeted using sub-population level interventions. Additionally, it is effective at identifying high-risk groups that would not be considered risk groups based on conventional risk factor analysis.

Original languageEnglish
Article number152380
Pages (from-to)1-11
Number of pages11
JournalComprehensive Psychiatry
Volume123
Early online date1 Mar 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - May 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This paper was funded by 113 Suicide Prevention , which is in turn funded by the Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare, and Sport .

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Author(s)

Funding

This paper was funded by 113 Suicide Prevention , which is in turn funded by the Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare, and Sport .

Keywords

  • Interactions
  • Machine learning
  • Population data
  • Risk factors
  • Suicide

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