Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making

M.D.A. Rounsevell; A. Arneth; C. Brown; W.W.L. Cheung; O. Gimenez; I. Holman; P. Leadley; C. Luján; S. Mahevas; I. Maréchaux; R. Pélissier; P.H. Verburg; G. Vieilledent; B.A. Wintle; Y.-J. Shin

doi:10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.003

Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making

M.D.A. Rounsevell, A. Arneth, C. Brown, W.W.L. Cheung, O. Gimenez, I. Holman, P. Leadley, C. Luján, S. Mahevas, I. Maréchaux, R. Pélissier, P.H. Verburg, G. Vieilledent, B.A. Wintle, Y.-J. Shin

Environmental Geography

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Abstract

There are many sources of uncertainty in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems, and understanding these uncertainties is critical in supporting informed decision-making about the management of natural resources. Here, we review uncertainty across the steps needed to create socio-ecological scenarios, from narrative storylines to the representation of human and biological processes in models and the estimation of scenario and model parameters. We find that socio-ecological scenarios and models would benefit from moving away from “stylized” approaches that do not consider a wide range of direct drivers and their dependency on indirect drivers. Indeed, a greater focus on the social phenomena is fundamental in understanding the functioning of nature on a human-dominated planet. There is no panacea for dealing with uncertainty, but several approaches to evaluating uncertainty are still not routinely applied in scenario modeling, and this is becoming increasingly unacceptable. However, it is important to avoid uncertainties becoming an excuse for inaction in decision-making when facing environmental challenges.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	967-985
Number of pages	19
Journal	One Earth
Volume	4
Issue number	7
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.003
Publication status	Published - 23 Jul 2021

Funding

This work is part of the USBIO project funded by the LabEx CeMEB ( ANR-10-LABX-04-01 ). M.D.A.R., A.A., and C.B. would like to acknowledge the funding of the Helmholtz Association . Y.-J.S. acknowledges funding support from the Biodiversa and Belmont Forum project SOMBEE (BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND program, ANR contract no. ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreements no. 869300 (FutureMARES) and no. 817578 (TRIATLAS), and the Pew Fellows Program in Marine Conservation at The Pew Charitable Trusts. R.P. was partly funded by the FACCE Era-Gas project 3DForMod (ANR contract no. ANR-17-EGAS-0002-01). O.G. was partly funded by CNRS "Mission pour l'interdisciplinarité" through its "Osez l'interdisciplinarité" call and the French National Research Agency (grant ANR-16-CE02-0007 ). W.W.L.C. acknowledges funding support from NSERC Discovery Grant ( RGPIN-2018-03864 ). B.A.W acknowledges funding from the Australian Research Council under ARC DP170104795. Natasha Cadenhead assisted in production of Figure 2 . This work is part of the USBIO project funded by the LabEx CeMEB (ANR-10-LABX-04-01). M.D.A.R. A.A. and C.B. would like to acknowledge the funding of the Helmholtz Association. Y.-J.S. acknowledges funding support from the Biodiversa and Belmont Forum project SOMBEE (BiodivScen ERA-Net COFUND program, ANR contract no. ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01), the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreements no. 869300 (FutureMARES) and no. 817578 (TRIATLAS), and the Pew Fellows Program in Marine Conservation at The Pew Charitable Trusts. R.P. was partly funded by the FACCE Era-Gas project 3DForMod (ANR contract no. ANR-17-EGAS-0002-01). O.G. was partly funded by CNRS ?Mission pour l'interdisciplinarit?? through its ?Osez l'interdisciplinarit?? call and the French National Research Agency (grant ANR-16-CE02-0007). W.W.L.C. acknowledges funding support from NSERC Discovery Grant (RGPIN-2018-03864). B.A.W acknowledges funding from the Australian Research Council under ARC DP170104795. Natasha Cadenhead assisted in production of Figure 2. All authors contributed to the conceptualization, writing, and editing of the manuscript. The authors declare no competing interests.

Funders	Funder number
LabEx CeMEB	ANR-10-LABX-04-01
Pew Charitable Trusts	ANR-17-EGAS-0002-01
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada	RGPIN-2018-03864
Australian Research Council	ARC DP170104795
Agence Nationale de la Recherche	ANR-16-CE02-0007
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique
Horizon 2020	817578, 869300
Helmholtz Association	ANR-18-EBI4-0003-01

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socioecological systems in support of decisionmakingFinal published version, 2.04 MBLicence: Article 25fa Dutch Copyright Act

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Rounsevell, M. D. A., Arneth, A., Brown, C., Cheung, W. W. L., Gimenez, O., Holman, I., Leadley, P., Luján, C., Mahevas, S., Maréchaux, I., Pélissier, R., Verburg, P. H., Vieilledent, G., Wintle, B. A., & Shin, Y.-J. (2021). Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making. One Earth, 4(7), 967-985. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.003

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Rounsevell, MDA, Arneth, A, Brown, C, Cheung, WWL, Gimenez, O, Holman, I, Leadley, P, Luján, C, Mahevas, S, Maréchaux, I, Pélissier, R, Verburg, PH, Vieilledent, G, Wintle, BA & Shin, Y-J 2021, 'Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making', One Earth, vol. 4, no. 7, pp. 967-985. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.003

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T1 - Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making

AU - Rounsevell, M.D.A.

AU - Arneth, A.

AU - Brown, C.

AU - Cheung, W.W.L.

AU - Gimenez, O.

AU - Holman, I.

AU - Leadley, P.

AU - Luján, C.

AU - Mahevas, S.

AU - Maréchaux, I.

AU - Pélissier, R.

AU - Verburg, P.H.

AU - Vieilledent, G.

AU - Wintle, B.A.

AU - Shin, Y.-J.

PY - 2021/7/23

Y1 - 2021/7/23

N2 - There are many sources of uncertainty in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems, and understanding these uncertainties is critical in supporting informed decision-making about the management of natural resources. Here, we review uncertainty across the steps needed to create socio-ecological scenarios, from narrative storylines to the representation of human and biological processes in models and the estimation of scenario and model parameters. We find that socio-ecological scenarios and models would benefit from moving away from “stylized” approaches that do not consider a wide range of direct drivers and their dependency on indirect drivers. Indeed, a greater focus on the social phenomena is fundamental in understanding the functioning of nature on a human-dominated planet. There is no panacea for dealing with uncertainty, but several approaches to evaluating uncertainty are still not routinely applied in scenario modeling, and this is becoming increasingly unacceptable. However, it is important to avoid uncertainties becoming an excuse for inaction in decision-making when facing environmental challenges.

AB - There are many sources of uncertainty in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems, and understanding these uncertainties is critical in supporting informed decision-making about the management of natural resources. Here, we review uncertainty across the steps needed to create socio-ecological scenarios, from narrative storylines to the representation of human and biological processes in models and the estimation of scenario and model parameters. We find that socio-ecological scenarios and models would benefit from moving away from “stylized” approaches that do not consider a wide range of direct drivers and their dependency on indirect drivers. Indeed, a greater focus on the social phenomena is fundamental in understanding the functioning of nature on a human-dominated planet. There is no panacea for dealing with uncertainty, but several approaches to evaluating uncertainty are still not routinely applied in scenario modeling, and this is becoming increasingly unacceptable. However, it is important to avoid uncertainties becoming an excuse for inaction in decision-making when facing environmental challenges.

U2 - 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.003

DO - 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.003

M3 - Review article

SN - 2590-3330

VL - 4

SP - 967

EP - 985

JO - One Earth

JF - One Earth

IS - 7

ER -

Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making

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UN SDGs

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