Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts

Tim Busker; Hans de Moel; Bart van den Hurk; Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165506

Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts

Tim Busker^*, Hans de Moel, Bart van den Hurk, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

The Horn of Africa faces an ongoing multi-year drought due to five consecutive failed rainy seasons, a novel climatic event with unpreceded impacts. Beyond the starvation of millions of livestock, close to 23 million individuals in the region are currently facing high food insecurity in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia alone. The severity of these impacts calls for the urgent upscaling and optimisation of early action for droughts. However, drought research focuses mainly on meteorological and hydrological forecasting, while early action triggered by forecasts is seldom addressed. This study investigates the potential for early action for droughts by using seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) SEAS5 system for the March–April-May (MAM) and October–November-December (OND) rainy seasons. We show that these seasonal rainfall forecasts reflect major on-the-ground impacts, which we identify from drought surveillance data from 21 counties in Kenya. Subsequently, we show that the SEAS5 drought forecasts with short lead times have substantial potential economic value (PEV) when used to trigger action before the OND season across the region (PEV_max = 0.43). Increasing lead time to one or two months ahead of the season decreases PEV, but the benefits persist (PEV_max = 0.2). Outside of Kenya, MAM forecasts have limited value. The existence of opportunities for early action during the OND season in Kenya and Somalia is demonstrated by high PEV values, with some regions recording PEV_max values close to 0.8. To illustrate the practical value of this research, we point to a dilemma that a pastoralist in the Kenyan drylands faces when deciding whether to adopt early livestock destocking. This study underscores the importance to determine the value of early actions for forecast users with different action characteristics, and to disseminate this value alongside the standard forecasts themselves. This allows users to trigger effective actions before drought impacts develop.

Original language	English
Article number	165506
Pages (from-to)	1-15
Number of pages	15
Journal	Science of the Total Environment
Volume	898
Early online date	15 Jul 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.165506
Publication status	Published - 10 Nov 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
This project was supported by the H2020 DOWN2EARTH project [grant agreement ID: 869550 ] and the COASTMOVE ERC advanced grant [grant nr. 884442 ]. We thank David MacLeod for discussions and suggestions, and NDMA, ECMWF and ICPAC for providing data and scientific advices. Additionally, we want to thank Cecilia Nicholson for proofreading and editing the manuscript. Lastly, we want to express our gratitude to Quinten Vesseur for the work on the NDMA impact data.

Funding Information:
This project was supported by the H2020 DOWN2EARTH project [grant agreement ID: 869550] and the COASTMOVE ERC advanced grant [grant nr. 884442]. We thank David MacLeod for discussions and suggestions, and NDMA, ECMWF and ICPAC for providing data and scientific advices. Additionally, we want to thank Cecilia Nicholson for proofreading and editing the manuscript. Lastly, we want to express our gratitude to Quinten Vesseur for the work on the NDMA impact data.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors

Keywords

Anticipatory action
Drought impact
Drought risk management
Drylands
Early warning
Humanitarian aid

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title = "Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts",

abstract = "The Horn of Africa faces an ongoing multi-year drought due to five consecutive failed rainy seasons, a novel climatic event with unpreceded impacts. Beyond the starvation of millions of livestock, close to 23 million individuals in the region are currently facing high food insecurity in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia alone. The severity of these impacts calls for the urgent upscaling and optimisation of early action for droughts. However, drought research focuses mainly on meteorological and hydrological forecasting, while early action triggered by forecasts is seldom addressed. This study investigates the potential for early action for droughts by using seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) SEAS5 system for the March–April-May (MAM) and October–November-December (OND) rainy seasons. We show that these seasonal rainfall forecasts reflect major on-the-ground impacts, which we identify from drought surveillance data from 21 counties in Kenya. Subsequently, we show that the SEAS5 drought forecasts with short lead times have substantial potential economic value (PEV) when used to trigger action before the OND season across the region (PEVmax = 0.43). Increasing lead time to one or two months ahead of the season decreases PEV, but the benefits persist (PEVmax = 0.2). Outside of Kenya, MAM forecasts have limited value. The existence of opportunities for early action during the OND season in Kenya and Somalia is demonstrated by high PEV values, with some regions recording PEVmax values close to 0.8. To illustrate the practical value of this research, we point to a dilemma that a pastoralist in the Kenyan drylands faces when deciding whether to adopt early livestock destocking. This study underscores the importance to determine the value of early actions for forecast users with different action characteristics, and to disseminate this value alongside the standard forecasts themselves. This allows users to trigger effective actions before drought impacts develop.",

keywords = "Anticipatory action, Drought impact, Drought risk management, Drylands, Early warning, Humanitarian aid",

author = "Tim Busker and {de Moel}, Hans and {van den Hurk}, Bart and Aerts, {Jeroen C.J.H.}",

note = "Funding Information: This project was supported by the H2020 DOWN2EARTH project [grant agreement ID: 869550 ] and the COASTMOVE ERC advanced grant [grant nr. 884442 ]. We thank David MacLeod for discussions and suggestions, and NDMA, ECMWF and ICPAC for providing data and scientific advices. Additionally, we want to thank Cecilia Nicholson for proofreading and editing the manuscript. Lastly, we want to express our gratitude to Quinten Vesseur for the work on the NDMA impact data. Funding Information: This project was supported by the H2020 DOWN2EARTH project [grant agreement ID: 869550] and the COASTMOVE ERC advanced grant [grant nr. 884442]. We thank David MacLeod for discussions and suggestions, and NDMA, ECMWF and ICPAC for providing data and scientific advices. Additionally, we want to thank Cecilia Nicholson for proofreading and editing the manuscript. Lastly, we want to express our gratitude to Quinten Vesseur for the work on the NDMA impact data. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Authors",

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N1 - Funding Information: This project was supported by the H2020 DOWN2EARTH project [grant agreement ID: 869550 ] and the COASTMOVE ERC advanced grant [grant nr. 884442 ]. We thank David MacLeod for discussions and suggestions, and NDMA, ECMWF and ICPAC for providing data and scientific advices. Additionally, we want to thank Cecilia Nicholson for proofreading and editing the manuscript. Lastly, we want to express our gratitude to Quinten Vesseur for the work on the NDMA impact data. Funding Information: This project was supported by the H2020 DOWN2EARTH project [grant agreement ID: 869550] and the COASTMOVE ERC advanced grant [grant nr. 884442]. We thank David MacLeod for discussions and suggestions, and NDMA, ECMWF and ICPAC for providing data and scientific advices. Additionally, we want to thank Cecilia Nicholson for proofreading and editing the manuscript. Lastly, we want to express our gratitude to Quinten Vesseur for the work on the NDMA impact data. Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors

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N2 - The Horn of Africa faces an ongoing multi-year drought due to five consecutive failed rainy seasons, a novel climatic event with unpreceded impacts. Beyond the starvation of millions of livestock, close to 23 million individuals in the region are currently facing high food insecurity in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia alone. The severity of these impacts calls for the urgent upscaling and optimisation of early action for droughts. However, drought research focuses mainly on meteorological and hydrological forecasting, while early action triggered by forecasts is seldom addressed. This study investigates the potential for early action for droughts by using seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) SEAS5 system for the March–April-May (MAM) and October–November-December (OND) rainy seasons. We show that these seasonal rainfall forecasts reflect major on-the-ground impacts, which we identify from drought surveillance data from 21 counties in Kenya. Subsequently, we show that the SEAS5 drought forecasts with short lead times have substantial potential economic value (PEV) when used to trigger action before the OND season across the region (PEVmax = 0.43). Increasing lead time to one or two months ahead of the season decreases PEV, but the benefits persist (PEVmax = 0.2). Outside of Kenya, MAM forecasts have limited value. The existence of opportunities for early action during the OND season in Kenya and Somalia is demonstrated by high PEV values, with some regions recording PEVmax values close to 0.8. To illustrate the practical value of this research, we point to a dilemma that a pastoralist in the Kenyan drylands faces when deciding whether to adopt early livestock destocking. This study underscores the importance to determine the value of early actions for forecast users with different action characteristics, and to disseminate this value alongside the standard forecasts themselves. This allows users to trigger effective actions before drought impacts develop.

AB - The Horn of Africa faces an ongoing multi-year drought due to five consecutive failed rainy seasons, a novel climatic event with unpreceded impacts. Beyond the starvation of millions of livestock, close to 23 million individuals in the region are currently facing high food insecurity in Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia alone. The severity of these impacts calls for the urgent upscaling and optimisation of early action for droughts. However, drought research focuses mainly on meteorological and hydrological forecasting, while early action triggered by forecasts is seldom addressed. This study investigates the potential for early action for droughts by using seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) SEAS5 system for the March–April-May (MAM) and October–November-December (OND) rainy seasons. We show that these seasonal rainfall forecasts reflect major on-the-ground impacts, which we identify from drought surveillance data from 21 counties in Kenya. Subsequently, we show that the SEAS5 drought forecasts with short lead times have substantial potential economic value (PEV) when used to trigger action before the OND season across the region (PEVmax = 0.43). Increasing lead time to one or two months ahead of the season decreases PEV, but the benefits persist (PEVmax = 0.2). Outside of Kenya, MAM forecasts have limited value. The existence of opportunities for early action during the OND season in Kenya and Somalia is demonstrated by high PEV values, with some regions recording PEVmax values close to 0.8. To illustrate the practical value of this research, we point to a dilemma that a pastoralist in the Kenyan drylands faces when deciding whether to adopt early livestock destocking. This study underscores the importance to determine the value of early actions for forecast users with different action characteristics, and to disseminate this value alongside the standard forecasts themselves. This allows users to trigger effective actions before drought impacts develop.

KW - Anticipatory action

KW - Drought impact

KW - Drought risk management

KW - Drylands

KW - Early warning

KW - Humanitarian aid

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ER -

Impact-based seasonal rainfall forecasting to trigger early action for droughts

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Keywords

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