Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models

Simona Meiler; Thomas Vogt; Nadia Bloemendaal; Alessio Ciullo; Chia Ying Lee; Suzana J. Camargo; Kerry Emanuel; David N. Bresch

doi:10.1038/s41467-022-33918-1

Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models

Simona Meiler^*
, Thomas Vogt
, Nadia Bloemendaal
, Alessio Ciullo
, Chia Ying Lee
, Suzana J. Camargo
, Kerry Emanuel
, David N. Bresch

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating damage to life and property. Historical TC data is scarce, complicating adequate TC risk assessments. Synthetic TC models are specifically designed to overcome this scarcity. While these models have been evaluated on their ability to simulate TC activity, no study to date has focused on model performance and applicability in TC risk assessments. This study performs the intercomparison of four different global-scale synthetic TC datasets in the impact space, comparing impact return period curves, probability of rare events, and hazard intensity distribution over land. We find that the model choice influences the costliest events, particularly in basins with limited TC activity. Modelled direct economic damages in the North Indian Ocean, for instance, range from 40 to 246 billion USD for the 100-yr event over the four hazard sets. We furthermore provide guidelines for the suitability of the different synthetic models for various research purposes.

Original language	English
Article number	6156
Pages (from-to)	1-12
Number of pages	12
Journal	Nature Communications
Volume	13
Early online date	18 Oct 2022
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33918-1
Publication status	Published - 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).

Funding

T.V. received funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) under the research project QUIDIC (01LP1907A), and through the CHIPS project, part of AXIS, an ERA-NET initiated by JPI Climate, and funded by FORMAS (SE), DLR/BMBF (DE, Grant No. 01LS1904A), AEI (ES) and ANR (FR) with co-funding by the European Union (Grant No. 776608). N.B. is funded by a VICI grant from the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) (Grant Number 453- 13-006) and the ERC Advanced Grant COASTMOVE #884442. C.Y.L. and S.J.C. thank the support from Vetlesen foundation to Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, they also acknowledge funding from the National Science Foundation (Grant AGS 20-43142), and the SwissRe Foundation. A.C. was funded by the EU Horizon 2020 REmote Climate Effects and their Impact on European sustainability, Policy and Trade (RECEIPT) project, grant agreement no. 820712.

Funders	Funder number
Agence Nationale de la Recherche
Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas
Swiss Re Foundation
European Commission
Agencia Estatal de Investigación
EU Horizon 2020 REmote
European Research Council
Vetlesen foundation
Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung	01LP1907A
Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt	01LS1904A
???publication-publication-funding-organisation-not-added???	884442, 776608, 820712
National Science Foundation	AGS 20-43142
Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek	453- 13-006

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10.1038/s41467-022-33918-1

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abstract = "Tropical cyclones (TCs) cause devastating damage to life and property. Historical TC data is scarce, complicating adequate TC risk assessments. Synthetic TC models are specifically designed to overcome this scarcity. While these models have been evaluated on their ability to simulate TC activity, no study to date has focused on model performance and applicability in TC risk assessments. This study performs the intercomparison of four different global-scale synthetic TC datasets in the impact space, comparing impact return period curves, probability of rare events, and hazard intensity distribution over land. We find that the model choice influences the costliest events, particularly in basins with limited TC activity. Modelled direct economic damages in the North Indian Ocean, for instance, range from 40 to 246 billion USD for the 100-yr event over the four hazard sets. We furthermore provide guidelines for the suitability of the different synthetic models for various research purposes.",

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AU - Vogt, Thomas

AU - Bloemendaal, Nadia

AU - Ciullo, Alessio

AU - Lee, Chia Ying

AU - Camargo, Suzana J.

AU - Emanuel, Kerry

AU - Bresch, David N.

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Intercomparison of regional loss estimates from global synthetic tropical cyclone models

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