TY - JOUR
T1 - Land-use change simulation and assessment of driving factors in the loess hilly region-a case study as Pengyang County
AU - Zhu, Z.
AU - Liu, L.
AU - Chen, Z.
AU - Zhang, J.
AU - Verburg, P.H.
PY - 2010
Y1 - 2010
N2 - The main objective of this study is to evaluate the land-use change and its relationship with its driving factors in the loess hilly region. In this study, a case study was carried out in Pengyang County. We set two land-use demand scenarios (a baseline scenario (scenario 1) and a real land-use requirement scenario (scenario 2)) during year 2001-2005 via assuming the effect of driving factors on land-use change keeps stable from 1993 to 2005. Two simulated land-use patterns of 2005 are therefore achieved accordingly by use of the conversion of land use and its effects model at small regional extent. Kappa analyses are conducted to compare each simulated land-use pattern with the reality. Results show that (1) the associated kappa values were decreased from 0.83 in 1993-2000 to 0.27 (in scenario 1) and 0.23 (in scenario 2) in 2001-2005 and (2) forest and grassland were the land-use types with highest commission errors, which implies that conversion of both the land-use types mentioned above is the main determinant of change of kappa values. Our study indicates the land-use change was driven by the synthetic multiply factors including natural and social-economic factors (e.g., slope, aspect, elevation, distance to road, soil types, and population dense) in 1993-2000 until "Grain for Green Project" was implemented and has become the dominant factor in 2001-2005
AB - The main objective of this study is to evaluate the land-use change and its relationship with its driving factors in the loess hilly region. In this study, a case study was carried out in Pengyang County. We set two land-use demand scenarios (a baseline scenario (scenario 1) and a real land-use requirement scenario (scenario 2)) during year 2001-2005 via assuming the effect of driving factors on land-use change keeps stable from 1993 to 2005. Two simulated land-use patterns of 2005 are therefore achieved accordingly by use of the conversion of land use and its effects model at small regional extent. Kappa analyses are conducted to compare each simulated land-use pattern with the reality. Results show that (1) the associated kappa values were decreased from 0.83 in 1993-2000 to 0.27 (in scenario 1) and 0.23 (in scenario 2) in 2001-2005 and (2) forest and grassland were the land-use types with highest commission errors, which implies that conversion of both the land-use types mentioned above is the main determinant of change of kappa values. Our study indicates the land-use change was driven by the synthetic multiply factors including natural and social-economic factors (e.g., slope, aspect, elevation, distance to road, soil types, and population dense) in 1993-2000 until "Grain for Green Project" was implemented and has become the dominant factor in 2001-2005
U2 - 10.1007/s10661-009-0880-2
DO - 10.1007/s10661-009-0880-2
M3 - Article
VL - 164
SP - 133
EP - 142
JO - Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
JF - Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
SN - 0167-6369
IS - 1-4
ER -
