Abstract
In September 2021, the WRR (Scientific Council for Government Policy) and the KNAW (Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences) published a scenario study by way of a long-term policy vision on how to deal with Covid-19. The scenario’s range from 'quickly back to the old normal' to complete disaster. The conclusion is that policy must be able to respond flexibly and adequately as the pandemic develops over time. However, the WRR/KNAW's scenario analysis deserves to be more focused in the sense that based on the epidemiological knowledge currently available, that scenario should be selected which is the most desirable but also feasible from a policy point of view. It is likely that it is the so-called 'flu+' scenario of the 5 scenario’s listed by WRR/KNAW, possibly supplemented with elements of the 'external threat' scenario. This provides the starting point to quantify a desired scenario using an extended SEIR model, based on a calibration with the most effective and least expensive policy interventions. This scenario can serve as a beacon for the policy to be pursued in the coming period, whereby deviations from the desired scenario are identified in time and can be adjusted with additional policy. Drawing up such a scenario and making the model suitable does require a joint effort by epidemiological and socio-economic modelling experts.
Translated title of the contribution | Long term corona policy should be based on the most desirable feasible scenario |
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Original language | Dutch |
Number of pages | 11 |
Journal | Me Judice : economen in debat |
Volume | 2021 |
Issue number | November 19 |
Publication status | Published - 19 Nov 2021 |