Large Fluctuations in Locational Marginal Prices

Tommaso Nesti, John Moriarty, Alessandro Zocca, Bert Zwart

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademic

25 Downloads (Pure)


This paper investigates large fluctuations of Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs) in wholesale energy markets caused by volatile renewable generation profiles. Specifically, we study events of the form $\mathbb{P} \Big ( \mathbf{LMP} \notin \prod_{i=1}^n [\alpha_i^-, \alpha_i^+] \Big),$ where $\mathbf{LMP}$ is the vector of LMPs at the $n$ power grid nodes, and $\boldsymbol{\alpha}^-,\boldsymbol{\alpha}^+\in\mathbb{R}^n$ are vectors of price thresholds specifying undesirable price occurrences. By exploiting the structure of the supply-demand matching mechanism in power grids, we look at LMPs as deterministic piecewise affine, possibly discontinuous functions of the stochastic input process, modeling uncontrollable renewable generation. We utilize techniques from large deviations theory to identify the most likely ways for extreme price spikes to happen, and to rank the nodes of the power grid in terms of their likelihood of experiencing a price spike. Our results are derived in the case of Gaussian fluctuations and are validated numerically on the IEEE 14-bus test case.
Original languageEnglish
Issue number2002.11680
Publication statusPublished - 26 Feb 2020

Bibliographical note

16 pages, 10 figures


  • math.OC
  • cs.SY
  • eess.SY
  • math.PR
  • physics.soc-ph

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Large Fluctuations in Locational Marginal Prices'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this