Lessons and challenges in land change modeling derived from synthesis of cross-case comparisons

R.G. Pontius Jr., J.C. Castella, T. de Nijs, Z. Duan, E. Fotsing, N. Goldstein, Kasper Kok, E. Koomen, C.D. Lippitt, W. McConnel, A. Mohd Sood, B.C. Pijanowski, P.H. Verburg, A.T. Veldkamp

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This chapter presents the lessons and challenges in land change modeling that emerged from years of reflection and numerous panel discussions at scientific conferences concerning a collaborative cross-case comparison in which the authors have participated. We summarize the lessons as nine challenges grouped under three themes: mapping, modeling, and learning. The mapping challenges are: to prepare data appropriately, to select relevant resolutions, and to differentiate types of land change. The modeling challenges are: to separate calibration from validation, to predict small amounts of change, and to interpret the influence of quantity error. The learning challenges are: to use appropriate map comparison measurements, to learn about land change processes, and to collaborate openly. To quantify the pattern validation of predictions of change, we recommend that modelers report as a percentage of the spatial extent the following measurements: misses, hits, wrong hits and false alarms. The chapter explains why the lessons and challenges are essential for the future research agenda concerning land change modeling.
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationTrends in spatial analysis and modelling
Subtitle of host publicationDecision-Support and Planning Strategies
EditorsMartin Behnisch, Gotthard Meine
Place of PublicationCham
PublisherSpringer International Publishing AG
Number of pages22
ISBN (Electronic)9783319525228
ISBN (Print)9783319525204, 9783319849232
Publication statusPublished - 2018

Publication series

NameGeotechnologies and the Environment
PublisherSpringer International Publishing
ISSN (Print)2365-0575
ISSN (Electronic)2365-0583


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