Abstract
The relation between drought severity and drought impacts is complex and relatively unexplored in the African continent. This study assesses the relation between reported drought impacts, drought indices, water scarcity and aridity across several counties in Kenya. The monthly bulletins of the National Drought Management Authority in Kenya provided drought impact data. A random forest (RF) model was used to explore which set of drought indices (standardized precipitation index, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, standardized soil moisture index and standardized streamflow index) best explains drought impacts on pasture, livestock deaths, milk production, crop losses, food insecurity, trekking distance for water and malnutrition. The findings of this study suggest a relation between drought severity and the frequency of drought impacts, whereby the latter also showed a positive relation with aridity. A relation between water scarcity and aridity was not found. The RF model revealed that every region, aggregated by aridity, had their own set of predictors for every impact category. Longer timescales (≥12 months) and the standardized streamflow index were strongly represented in the list of predictors, indicating the importance of hydrological drought to predict drought impact occurrences. This study highlights the potential of linking drought indices with text-based impact reports while acknowledging that the findings strongly depend on the availability of drought impact data. Moreover, it emphasizes the importance of considering spatial differences in aridity, water scarcity and socio-economic conditions within a region when exploring the relationships between drought impacts and indices.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 2915-2936 |
| Number of pages | 22 |
| Journal | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| Volume | 23 |
| Issue number | 9 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 1 Sept 2023 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:MRL designed and carried out the research, supervised by AJT, AFVL, AM and ADT. RAO computed the drought indices and wrote the related method section. MRL wrote the manuscript with input from all co-authors. The revisions were handled by MRL with support from AJT, AM, AFVL and RAO. The final version has been approved by all co-authors.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
Funding
MRL designed and carried out the research, supervised by AJT, AFVL, AM and ADT. RAO computed the drought indices and wrote the related method section. MRL wrote the manuscript with input from all co-authors. The revisions were handled by MRL with support from AJT, AM, AFVL and RAO. The final version has been approved by all co-authors.