Linking source with consequences of coastal storm impacts for climate change and risk reduction scenarios for Mediterranean sandy beaches

Marc Sanuy, Enrico Duo, Wiebke S. Jäger, Paolo Ciavola, José A. Jiménez

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

Integrated risk assessment approaches to support coastal managers' decisions when designing plans are increasingly becoming an urgent need. To enable efficient coastal management, possible present and future scenarios must be included, disaster risk reduction measures integrated, and multiple hazards dealt with. In this work, the Bayesian network-based approach to coastal risk assessment was applied and tested at two Mediterranean sandy coasts (Tordera Delta in Spain and Lido degli Estensi-Spina in Italy). Process-oriented models are used to predict hazards at the receptor scale which are converted into impacts through vulnerability relations. In each site, results from 96 simulations under different scenarios are integrated by using a Bayesian-based decision network to link forcing characteristics with expected impacts through conditional probabilities. Consultations with local stakeholders and experts have shown that the tool is valuable for communicating risks and the effects of risk reduction strategies. The tool can therefore be valuable support for coastal decision-making.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1825-1847
JournalNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Volume18
Issue number7
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 3 Jul 2018
Externally publishedYes

Funding

Acknowledgements. This work was conducted in the framework of the RISC-KIT (GA 603458) and PaiRisClima (CGL2014-55387-R) research projects funded by the EU FP7 and Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and Feder, respectively. Marc Sanuy was supported by a PhD grant from the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport. Enrico Duo was supported by the Consorzio Futuro in Ricerca (Ferrara, Italy) through the RISC-KIT project and a PhD grant at the Department of Physics and Earth Science of the University of Ferrara. During the preparation of the paper, Marc Sanuy and José A. Jiménez were supported by the M-CostAdapt (CTM2017-83655-C2-1-R) research project (MINECO/AEI/FEDER, UE) and Enrico Duo and Paolo Ciavola were supported by the H2020 ANYWHERE Project (GA700099). The authors thank the Institut Cartogràfic i Geològic de Catalunya for supplying aerial photographs and lidar data and Puertos del Estado of the Spanish Ministry of Public Works for supplying wave and water level data. The authors thank the Servizio Geologico Sismico e dei Suoli of the Emilia-Romagna Region, in particular Luisa Perini, for providing input data and comments on the outcomes. The authors are grateful to Clara Armaroli, for helping in the application of the methodology at the Italian site, and to the people working on RISC-KIT, for their support during the entire project.

FundersFunder number
Consorzio Futuro in Ricerca
M-CostAdaptCTM2017-83655-C2-1-R
Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and Feder
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme
Seventh Framework Programme603458, 700099
Federación Española de Enfermedades Raras
Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad
Università degli Studi di Ferrara
Agencia Estatal de Investigación
University of the East

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