Abstract
Safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for surface water and groundwater (blue water) have been defined for sustainable water management in the Anthropocene. Here we assessed whether minimum human needs could be met with surface water from within individual river basins alone and, where this is not possible, quantified how much groundwater would be required. Approximately 2.6 billion people live in river basins where groundwater is needed because they are already outside the surface water ESB or have insufficient surface water to meet human needs and the ESB. Approximately 1.4 billion people live in river basins where demand-side transformations would be required as they either exceed the surface water ESB or face a decline in groundwater recharge and cannot meet minimum needs within the ESB. A further 1.5 billion people live in river basins outside the ESB, with insufficient surface water to meet minimum needs, requiring both supply- and demand-side transformations. These results highlight the challenges and opportunities of meeting even basic human access needs to water and protecting aquatic ecosystems.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 53-63 |
Number of pages | 14 |
Journal | Nature Sustainability |
Volume | 7 |
Issue number | 1 |
Early online date | 16 Nov 2023 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - Jan 2024 |
Bibliographical note
Funding Information:The Earth Commission is hosted by Future Earth and is the science component of the Global Commons Alliance. The Global Commons Alliance is a sponsored project of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors, with support from Oak Foundation, MAVA, Porticus, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Tiina and Antti Herlin Foundation, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and the Global Environment Facility. The Earth Commission is also supported by the Global Challenges Foundation. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the paper. C.N. is supported by the Australian Research Council (DE230101327). J.G. acknowledges funding from the ‘Water Allocation and Rights Study’ funded by the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management (IenW), under grant number 5000005700 and case number 31184622, and the ‘Water Commission Report on Water Economics’ project, contributing to the Global Commission on the Economics of Water (GCEW) and funded by the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO) with reference UNWCS22002. S.J.L. is supported by Australian Research Council Future Fellowship FT200100381 and Swedish Research Council Formas 2020-00371.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023, The Author(s).
Funding
The Earth Commission is hosted by Future Earth and is the science component of the Global Commons Alliance. The Global Commons Alliance is a sponsored project of Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors, with support from Oak Foundation, MAVA, Porticus, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, Tiina and Antti Herlin Foundation, William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and the Global Environment Facility. The Earth Commission is also supported by the Global Challenges Foundation. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the paper. C.N. is supported by the Australian Research Council (DE230101327). J.G. acknowledges funding from the ‘Water Allocation and Rights Study’ funded by the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management (IenW), under grant number 5000005700 and case number 31184622, and the ‘Water Commission Report on Water Economics’ project, contributing to the Global Commission on the Economics of Water (GCEW) and funded by the Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO) with reference UNWCS22002. S.J.L. is supported by Australian Research Council Future Fellowship FT200100381 and Swedish Research Council Formas 2020-00371.