Location determinants of industrial solar photovoltaics and onshore wind turbines in the EU

The transition to renewable energy sources, particularly wind turbines and solar photovoltaics, is critical to achieving a climate-neutral European Union. However, challenges in deployment arise related to land conflicts, aesthetics, regulatory barriers and others. While studies have indicated optimal locations, their actual location and associated location determinants remain unknown. This study addresses this gap, with contributions in three key areas. Firstly, it presents the most recent and coherent spatial dataset of onshore wind turbines (118,238) and industrial solar photovoltaics (670 km2) in the European Union, extracted from Open Street Map. The results present an 8.5-fold and 2.5-fold increase in onshore wind turbines and solar photovoltaics, respectively, compared to similar results from 2020. Secondly, the study provides two models to understand the significance, associated relationship, and strength of a wide range of variables as location determinants. It identifies 16 significant predictors for onshore wind turbines, and 13 for solar PV, uncovering previously unconsidered predictors in optimal placement studies. A 50-fold cross-validation concluded the robustness of both models, allowing for the development of probability maps that illustrate the future expansion potential in the European Union. The regions with the highest wind turbine potential include Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Belgium, northern Germany and France. For solar PV, areas with significant potential are found in the Netherlands, Germany, flat regions in Italy, southern and central Spain, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary.