Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions

Michael Getachew Tadesse; Thomas Wahl; Md Mamunur Rashid; Sönke Dangendorf; Alejandra Rodríguez-Enríquez; Stefan Andreas Talke

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-17099-x

Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions

Michael Getachew Tadesse^*
, Thomas Wahl
, Md Mamunur Rashid
, Sönke Dangendorf
, Alejandra Rodríguez-Enríquez
, Stefan Andreas Talke

^*Corresponding author for this work

Water and Climate Risk

Research output: Contribution to Journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

Abstract

We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.

Original language	English
Article number	13307
Pages (from-to)	1-18
Number of pages	18
Journal	Scientific Reports
Volume	12
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-17099-x
Publication status	Published - 3 Aug 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
M.G.T. and T.W. were supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the New (Early Career) Investigator Program in Earth Science (grant number: 80NSSC18K0743) and the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241). T.W. also acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (under Grant ICER‐1854896). S.A.T. was supported by National Science Foundation project numbers 2013280 and 1455350. S.D. acknowledges the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241) and David and Jane Flowerree.

Funding Information:
Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3 dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office, and by the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. We also would like to thank ECMWF and NASA as well as GESLA for making the reanalysis datasets and the sea-level data available free of charge. We acknowledge the GESLA project for making tide gauge data available.

Funding Information:
M.G.T. and T.W. were supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the New (Early Career) Investigator Program in Earth Science (grant number: 80NSSC18K0743) and the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241). T.W. also acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (under Grant ICER‐1854896). S.A.T. was supported by National Science Foundation project numbers 2013280 and 1455350. S.D. acknowledges the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241) and David and Jane Flowerree. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3 dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office, and by the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. We also would like to thank ECMWF and NASA as well as GESLA for making the reanalysis datasets and the sea-level data available free of charge. We acknowledge the GESLA project for making tide gauge data available.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022, The Author(s).

Funding

M.G.T. and T.W. were supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the New (Early Career) Investigator Program in Earth Science (grant number: 80NSSC18K0743) and the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241). T.W. also acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (under Grant ICER‐1854896). S.A.T. was supported by National Science Foundation project numbers 2013280 and 1455350. S.D. acknowledges the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241) and David and Jane Flowerree. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3 dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office, and by the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. We also would like to thank ECMWF and NASA as well as GESLA for making the reanalysis datasets and the sea-level data available free of charge. We acknowledge the GESLA project for making tide gauge data available. M.G.T. and T.W. were supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the New (Early Career) Investigator Program in Earth Science (grant number: 80NSSC18K0743) and the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241). T.W. also acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (under Grant ICER‐1854896). S.A.T. was supported by National Science Foundation project numbers 2013280 and 1455350. S.D. acknowledges the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241) and David and Jane Flowerree. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3 dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office, and by the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. We also would like to thank ECMWF and NASA as well as GESLA for making the reanalysis datasets and the sea-level data available free of charge. We acknowledge the GESLA project for making tide gauge data available.

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10.1038/s41598-022-17099-x

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@article{5a884992e0bc48a48eb9befda8bfa33f,

title = "Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions",

abstract = "We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.",

author = "Tadesse, \{Michael Getachew\} and Thomas Wahl and Rashid, \{Md Mamunur\} and S{\"o}nke Dangendorf and Alejandra Rodr{\'i}guez-Enr{\'i}quez and Talke, \{Stefan Andreas\}",

note = "Funding Information: M.G.T. and T.W. were supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the New (Early Career) Investigator Program in Earth Science (grant number: 80NSSC18K0743) and the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241). T.W. also acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (under Grant ICER‐1854896). S.A.T. was supported by National Science Foundation project numbers 2013280 and 1455350. S.D. acknowledges the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241) and David and Jane Flowerree. Funding Information: Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3 dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office, and by the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. We also would like to thank ECMWF and NASA as well as GESLA for making the reanalysis datasets and the sea-level data available free of charge. We acknowledge the GESLA project for making tide gauge data available. Funding Information: M.G.T. and T.W. were supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the New (Early Career) Investigator Program in Earth Science (grant number: 80NSSC18K0743) and the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241). T.W. also acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (under Grant ICER‐1854896). S.A.T. was supported by National Science Foundation project numbers 2013280 and 1455350. S.D. acknowledges the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241) and David and Jane Flowerree. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3 dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office, and by the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. We also would like to thank ECMWF and NASA as well as GESLA for making the reanalysis datasets and the sea-level data available free of charge. We acknowledge the GESLA project for making tide gauge data available. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022, The Author(s).",

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doi = "10.1038/s41598-022-17099-x",

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AU - Dangendorf, Sönke

AU - Rodríguez-Enríquez, Alejandra

AU - Talke, Stefan Andreas

N1 - Funding Information: M.G.T. and T.W. were supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the New (Early Career) Investigator Program in Earth Science (grant number: 80NSSC18K0743) and the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241). T.W. also acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (under Grant ICER‐1854896). S.A.T. was supported by National Science Foundation project numbers 2013280 and 1455350. S.D. acknowledges the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241) and David and Jane Flowerree. Funding Information: Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3 dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office, and by the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. We also would like to thank ECMWF and NASA as well as GESLA for making the reanalysis datasets and the sea-level data available free of charge. We acknowledge the GESLA project for making tide gauge data available. Funding Information: M.G.T. and T.W. were supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) under the New (Early Career) Investigator Program in Earth Science (grant number: 80NSSC18K0743) and the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241). T.W. also acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (under Grant ICER‐1854896). S.A.T. was supported by National Science Foundation project numbers 2013280 and 1455350. S.D. acknowledges the NASA Sea Level Science Team (grant number: 80NSSC20K1241) and David and Jane Flowerree. Support for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project version 3 dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office, and by the NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory. We also would like to thank ECMWF and NASA as well as GESLA for making the reanalysis datasets and the sea-level data available free of charge. We acknowledge the GESLA project for making tide gauge data available. Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s).

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AB - We address the challenge, due to sparse observational records, of investigating long-term changes in the storm surge climate globally. We use two centennial and three satellite-era daily storm surge time series from the Global Storm Surge Reconstructions (GSSR) database and assess trends in the magnitude and frequency of extreme storm surge events at 320 tide gauges across the globe from 1930, 1950, and 1980 to present. Before calculating trends, we perform change point analysis to identify and remove data where inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalysis products could lead to spurious trends in the storm surge data. Even after removing unreliable data, the database still extends existing storm surge records by several decades for most of the tide gauges. Storm surges derived from the centennial 20CR and ERA-20C atmospheric reanalyses show consistently significant positive trends along the southern North Sea and the Kattegat Bay regions during the periods from 1930 and 1950 onwards and negative trends since 1980 period. When comparing all five storm surge reconstructions and observations for the overlapping 1980–2010 period we find overall good agreement, but distinct differences along some coastlines, such as the Bay of Biscay and Australia. We also assess changes in the frequency of extreme surges and find that the number of annual exceedances above the 95th percentile has increased since 1930 and 1950 in several regions such as Western Europe, Kattegat Bay, and the US East Coast.

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Long-term trends in storm surge climate derived from an ensemble of global surge reconstructions

Abstract

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