Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions

R.S.J. Tol

doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0723-6

Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions

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Abstract

The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in the level of emissions (while pre- and post-crisis trends are similar). If something like that would happen in China, an event with an unknown but small probability, projected emissions would fall by 50 % or more. The effect of a break-up on emissions in 2050 is larger than the difference between the SRES scenarios. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	961-970
Journal	Climatic Change
Volume	117
Issue number	4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-0723-6
Publication status	Published - 2013

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AB - The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in the level of emissions (while pre- and post-crisis trends are similar). If something like that would happen in China, an event with an unknown but small probability, projected emissions would fall by 50 % or more. The effect of a break-up on emissions in 2050 is larger than the difference between the SRES scenarios. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

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Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions

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