Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in the level of emissions (while pre- and post-crisis trends are similar). If something like that would happen in China, an event with an unknown but small probability, projected emissions would fall by 50 % or more. The effect of a break-up on emissions in 2050 is larger than the difference between the SRES scenarios. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)961-970
JournalClimatic Change
Volume117
Issue number4
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013

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Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions. / Tol, R.S.J.

In: Climatic Change, Vol. 117, No. 4, 2013, p. 961-970.

Research output: Contribution to JournalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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AB - The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in the level of emissions (while pre- and post-crisis trends are similar). If something like that would happen in China, an event with an unknown but small probability, projected emissions would fall by 50 % or more. The effect of a break-up on emissions in 2050 is larger than the difference between the SRES scenarios. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.

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