TY - JOUR
T1 - Low probability, high impact: the implications of a break-up of China for carbon dioxide emissions
AU - Tol, R.S.J.
PY - 2013
Y1 - 2013
N2 - The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in the level of emissions (while pre- and post-crisis trends are similar). If something like that would happen in China, an event with an unknown but small probability, projected emissions would fall by 50 % or more. The effect of a break-up on emissions in 2050 is larger than the difference between the SRES scenarios. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
AB - The transition from autocracy to democracy may lead a country to break-up. The break-ups of the USSR and Yugoslavia led to sharp falls in the level of emissions (while pre- and post-crisis trends are similar). If something like that would happen in China, an event with an unknown but small probability, projected emissions would fall by 50 % or more. The effect of a break-up on emissions in 2050 is larger than the difference between the SRES scenarios. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84874948815
UR - https://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84874948815&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1007/s10584-013-0723-6
DO - 10.1007/s10584-013-0723-6
M3 - Article
SN - 0165-0009
VL - 117
SP - 961
EP - 970
JO - Climatic Change
JF - Climatic Change
IS - 4
ER -
