Mapping biodiversity and ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies of agricultural change trajectories in Europe

The intensification, extensification and abandonment of agricultural land will each play a major role in the future development of European landscapes. However, their impacts on various dimensions of sustainability vary spatially. This creates challenges but also opportunities for landscape managers and policymakers to optimize biodiversity and ecosystem services. In this study, we conduct a spatial assessment of the impacts of these three major agricultural development trajectories on ten ecosystem service and biodiversity indicators across the European Union (EU) and the UK. Using a spatial resolution of 1 km2, we exposed high spatial variation in impacts and strong differences in the spatial patterns depending on the indicator. Aggregating all positive and negative impacts of a trajectory, hot- and cold spots of total positive and negative impacts could be distinguished. An assessment of trade-offs and synergies between impacts of each trajectory was used to map areas dominated by beneficial impacts, detrimental impacts, or high trade-offs between impacts. The results indicate very diverse spatial trade-off and synergy patterns, with generally high sub-regional variation, emphasizing (i) the need for reflecting trade-offs and context-specificity in landscape planning and management and (ii) the potential advantages of spatial targeting of agricultural development and conservation strategies. Biodiversity and ecosystem service impact mapping exercises can, thus, be a major tool to effectively navigate trade-offs and synergies and explore effective sustainable landscape solutions.